Big 12 Week 10 Recap

Alright, time to see how this week's five Big 12 games ended up.  This weekend I watched the first three quarters of Oklahoma-Iowa State game early, tuned in to Baylor-Kansas in the mid-afternoon, saw a bit of the Texas-Texas Tech game during a rain delay of the BU-KU match, and switched between Kansas State-Oklahoma State, Oregon-USC, and Alabama-LSU late.

The spreadsheet's record this week was 4-1, giving it an overall record of 7-2 over two weeks.  Again, the miss came on the closest matchup of the week.

Prediction: Baylor 35, Kansas 30
Reality: Baylor 41, Kansas 14

Game Notes: Baylor jumped out to a 14-0 lead early behind two stops by the defense.  A 59 yard touchdown rush by Kansas put them back in the game, but Baylor drove back down the field for a field goal and then stopped a Jayhawk drive that terminated with a failed fake field goal rush at the Baylor 14 yard line early in the 2nd quarter.  Subsequent offensive drives for both teams stalled until Kansas' Cummings limped ahead of the Baylor defense into the end zone to make the game 17-14.  Baylor managed another field goal to increase their lead to 6, and the teams went into the half with Baylor leading 20-14.

Lightning delayed the game after the half for about 30 minutes, so I swung over to the Texas-Texas Tech game for awhile.  By the time the teams resumed play, a steady drizzle had begun, a worrisome development for Baylor considering the styles of the two offenses.  The Bears came up with a big stop on the first Jayhawk drive of the second half, with Kansas turning the ball over on downs near the Baylor 45.  Baylor promptly punched the ball into the endzone with their own version of OU's Belldozer, run by Bryce Petty (which shall be known henceforth as the Petty Driver - get on board with it, Musburger) to make the score 27-14.  A Joe Williams interception offered the Bears the chance to increase their lead, but the ensuing drive stalled and then the Bears lost a great opportunity to pin the Jayhawks deep, allowing a touchback on the punt.  But the Bears picked off Cummings again on the next drive, this time the interception coming from Ahmad Dixon.  And this time the Bears did pound in another score, this time a rushing touchdown for Nick Florence.  That drive seemed to break the Jayhawk spirit, and the Bears went on to win by 27.  Kansas is still looking for that elusive 20 point offensive performance in a conference game.  Baylor's offense, meanwhile, is in good company, joining Kansas State and Oklahoma as the Big 12 programs to which the Jayhawk defense has surrendered 40+ points.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Iowa State 20
Reality: Oklahoma 35, Iowa State 20

Game Notes: The game was scoreless through the 1st quarter, a function of ISU's defense playing well (at one point stuffing Blake Bell on 4th-and-1 on the ISU 6) and Iowa State's offense sputtering despite Oklahoma's defense failing to put them away, allowing new sets of downs with facemask, hands to the face, and pass interference penalties.  Oklahoma finally broke through for a touchdown, but ISU's punter and defense continued to keep the Cyclones in the game, with an interception just before the 5 minute mark of the 2nd quarter giving ISU the ball inside the OU 20.  The ISU receivers continued this week to have trouble holding onto the ball, and the Cyclones were able to come up only with a field goal.  On the very next OU drive ISU continued to get pressure on Landry Jones and came up with another interception, this time on a tipped pass, but again was only able to come up with 3 points on a 51 yard field goal.  With barely a minute left in the half, OU drove 75 yards for another touchdown to go to the half leading 14-6.  In the second half, OU pulled away to win by 15.  I'm very pleased with the spreadsheet's performance on this matchup.


Prediction: Kansas State 33, Oklahoma State 24
Reality: Kansas State 44, Oklahoma State 30

Game Notes: Yet again, Kansas State started deceptively slow, grinding at the opponent, and then inevitably capitalizing off more turnovers.  Leading 10-7 in the 2nd quarter, the Wildcats forced a fumble and pounded home a touchdown on a well-executed read option.  The Cowboy quarterback Wes Lunt subsequently threw three interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, by the 13 minute mark of the 3rd quarter.  With the Wildcats up by 21 late in the 3rd, Collin Klein came out of the game with an apparent injury.  Even without Optimus Klein, the Wildcats suffocated the Cowboys, winning their ninth game of the year.

Prediction: Texas Christian 42, West Virginia 34
Reality: Texas Christian 39, West Virginia 38

Game Notes: I didn't see any of this game live, but did follow it into overtime on the ESPN game tracker.  Both teams flubbed field goals on their first drives of OT.  WVU subsequently scored a touchdown, and TCU promptly did the same...and went for two, winning the game.  Shades of the Baylor-Texas A&M 2004 game, and a quality pick for the spreadsheet.

Prediction: Texas Tech 39, Texas 36
Reality: Texas 31, Texas Tech 22.

Game Notes: In a fun little bit of nose-tweaking, Texas Tech decided to emphasize their Texas credentials against UT with uniforms displaying red, white, and blue stars and a double T inside an outline of the state on the right side of the helmet.  But they couldn't continue the tweaking on the field, as Good Texas showed up today instead of Bad Texas.  The Longhorns led at the break, but the UT offense sputtered in the 3rd quarter.  Early in the 2nd half Doege brought the Red Raiders downfield for a field goal scoring drive to make the score 24-16 Texas.  Tech stopped UT's subsequent drive and drove back up the field again, including a gutsy reverse call on 4th-and-1 to keep the drive alive, to tack on six more points.  The Red Raiders' ensuing two-point conversion attempt failed and the Longhorns nursed a slim 24-22 lead into the 4th quarter.  I headed back over to the Baylor game with UT driving into the Red Raider red zone with about 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  The Longhorns would ultimately hold on to win against the Red Raiders, adding a touchdown and preventing any further scoring by Texas Tech.

In other news around the country, Pitt took Notre Dame to overtime in South Bend but missed a game-winning field goal and allowed the Irish to slip past for a win.  Distinct lack of style points for ND; how much will it hurt the Irish down the stretch?

In LA, Oregon raced out to an early lead which they never relinquished, pounding USC 62-51 in an offensive explosion.  Style points here?  Believe it.  Not only do the Ducks rack up a win, but they knock down ND's strength of schedule with the win.

And in Baton Rouge, LSU took an early field goal lead, which Bama erased.  With the Tide leading 14-3 late in the 3rd quarter, LSU finally put together a drive deep into Bama territory to score a touchdown and pull within 4.  On the subsequent kickoff, the Mad Hatter pulled out an onside kick which was touched by the LSU kicker before going 10 yards, giving Bama the ball on the LSU 44.  But Bama fumbled the ball back to LSU, and the Tigers went ahead 17-14.  With two minutes left in the game, Bama drove back down the field, taking advantage of soft LSU coverage.  And then AJ McCarron read a Tiger blitz perfectly, and dropped off a beautiful little screen pass to TJ Yeldon to go back up by 4 with 51 seconds remaining.  Gutsy win by Bama.

If I had a ballot, this week Oregon would definitely have climbed back on top of ND.  Bama remains first; KSU remains second.