Did I say a great weekend of football, or what?
The spreadsheet went 2-2 this week, for an overall record of 17-5 since its inception. The proudest prediction must surely be the Baylor-Texas Tech game, which was predicted to be essentially even and indeed was decided in overtime. Let's look at the week in a bit more detail.
Prediction: Baylor 37, Texas Tech 37
Reality: Baylor 52, Texas Tech 45
Game Notes: It didn't have to be this way. Aaron Jones managed to miss three field goals in regulation, the last coming as time expired with the score tied up at 45. Of course, he probably would have hit that last field goal without a botched snap that backed the Bears up 7 yards beforehand. Of course, the Bears wouldn't even have been in the position to win it with a field goal as time expired without a bizarre interception coming on a Texas Tech screen play in which Seth Doege threw a pass that bounced off a blocking lineman's head.
In short, missed opportunities, mistakes, and head-scratching play calling littered the field at the end of this one. Bears fans are surely happy, as Baylor is now 6-5 and bowl eligible for three straight years - the first time in school history. Perhaps more importantly from a perceptions point of view, they did it without RGIII on the field, although the rookie phenom was on the sidelines watching his alma mater, 48 hours after lighting up the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day and scoring 40+ fantasy football points for Yours Truly.
Texas Tech's offense was clicking, the Red Raider defense shut Baylor's red-zone offense completely down, and (as mentioned above) Jones misfired twice early in the game to put Tech ahead 21-7 late in the second quarter. But then Tech fumbled deep in Baylor territory with less than 1:30 left in the half, and eight plays and a massively blown coverage later Baylor had pulled to within 7. And I am not understating how terribly the Tech defense blew that coverage; from the Texas Tech 39, Levi Norwood ran straight towards the endzone and nobody at all twitched a muscle in his direction until it was far, far too late.
Tech got the ball to start the second half and put themselves ahead by 10 with a field goal. Baylor answered a couple of drives later with a touchdown, and then Leon Mackey fielded the ensuing kickoff at his own 3 and blasted upfield for a 97 yard touchdown return. That's one way for Baylor to get its defense a little rest, I suppose. The Bears answered with a touchdown drive and the score was 28-31 with a little over 2 minutes left in the 3rd. And then the Baylor defense returned to its opportunistic ways. Eddie Lackey picked off Doege for a touchdown to give Baylor its first lead of the game.
Baylor picked up another TD and the Red Raiders racked up two more of their own before Jones trotted out to kick his only good field goal of the night, a 22 yarder that tied the game up at 45. With 2:48 left in the game, Tech picked up a first down, then set up a screen, and then Doege bounced that pass off his lineman's head into Lackey's arms. But Baylor couldn't put the game away, and into overtime it went, where Baylor took 4 rushing plays for Glasco Martin IV to put the ball into the end zone, dragged and pushed along by his linemen and tight end. Tech took over: a holding call backed them up 10 yards, and then Doege threw two incompletions before hitting a receiver across the middle for 15 yards. 4th and 5. Doege dropped back, fired a pass towards a slanting receiver, and the Baylor defender was all over the play. The pass was broken up. And just like that, 90% of the Big 12 was bowl-eligible.
Prediction: Iowa State 36, West Virginia 33
Reality: West Virginia 31, Iowa State 24
Game Notes: another competitive Big 12 game this weekend. WVU scored about what the spreadsheet predicted, but ISU fell short. Tavon Austin added to his already impressive season with a 75 yard touchdown run (officially a pass reception on a sweep, with Geno Smith flicking the ball foward) and subsequent rush for a two point conversion, but the WVU hero of the day had to be Shawn Alston, who carried the ball for 130 yards and a touchdown on a blustery November afternoon. Iowa State was in the game until the end, leading 24-23 with half of the 4th quarter to go before Austin's run. And they drove down the field after that touchdown, reaching 1st and goal at the WVU 7-yard line before a crushing, crushing fumble in the end zone was recovered by the Mountaineers with just under 4 minutes in the game. The Cyclones never got the ball back; Austin and Alston rushed for 3 first downs and the Mountaineers became bowl eligible, going to 6-5 with a game against Kansas left to play.
Prediction: Oklahoma 47, Oklahoma State 32
Reality: Oklahoma 51, Oklahoma State 48
Game Notes: another thrilling chapter was added to the Bedlam series. In the second overtime game of the weekend, Oklahoma absorbed Oklahoma State's best shot, playing from behind the entire game...except the end. Blake Bell rushed for a touchdown with seconds remaining in the 4th to tie the game up at 45; the OU defense held the Cowboys to a field goal in the first possession of overtime; and two plays later Brennan Clay took the ball in for a touchdown to give the Sooners at once their first lead of the game and the win. Landry Jones threw for 500 yards and became the Big 12 passing leader in the win; and the Sooners' hopes for a BCS berth remain alive. They can win the Big 12 outright with a win over TCU and a KSU loss to UT next week; they may still slip into an at-large spot. Oklahoma State dropped to 7-4 and needs to beat Baylor next week to avoid becoming entangled in a potential logjam of seven-win Big 12 teams.
Prediction: Texas 34, Texas Christian 33
Reality: Texas Christian 20, Texas 13
Game Notes: a low scoring loss for the spreadsheet, and probably the most surprising result of the weekend for me. Texas had seemed to be getting their act together in the weeks leading up to this game, but yet again quarterback play hamstrung the Longhorns. TCU, on the other hand, got back on track with a win in their first Thanksgiving Day game since 1928, and recorded their first victory in Austin since 1967 (which, by my count, means they had approximately 14 attempts to do so in the last decades of the old Southwest Conference). Props must be given to TCU for its performance this season; not a few onlookers wondered how the Frogs would fare after losing Pachall in September.
Around the country, Alabama beat up on Auburn, Georgia beat up on Georgia Tech, and Florida beat Florida State. For those keeping track at home, Alabama is hovering at #2 in the BCS, Georgia at #3, and Florida at #4; Oregon, who beat Oregon State, is at #5. Bama and Georgia are going to Atlanta to settle the SEC championship; with Stanford crushing UCLA at the time of this writing, Oregon will almost assuredly be watching the PAC-12 championship game from home. #1 Notre Dame is leading USC 10-7 at the start of the 2nd quarter at the time of this posting. Anyone who is not a fan of the SEC must certainly be hoping with bated breath for a Notre Dame victory; in a supremely ironic twist, folks in SEC country have got to be pulling just as hard for Lane Kiffin's Trojans. A Notre Dame loss virtually assures another all-SEC BCS championship game, with Florida taking on the SEC champion.
Yet again, another college football season hangs in the balance. Did I say a great weekend of football, or what?
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