Big 12 Predictions, Week 12

We're closing in on the end now, folks.  One week to Thanksgiving, conference championship pictures and bowl projections are shaping up.  Six of the 10 Big 12 teams are bowl eligible; two more are a win away from eligibility.  Here are the standings:

1. #1 Kansas State (10-0, 7-0)
2. #12 Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1)
3. #15 Texas (8-2, 5-2)
4. #24 Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2)
5. #23 Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3)
6. Texas Christian (6-4, 3-4)
7. West Virginia (5-4, 2-4)
8. Iowa State (5-5, 2-5)
9. Baylor (4-5, 1-5)
10. Kansas (1-9, 0-7)

It's time to start thinking about the end of the season, so from here on out, instead of subjective power rankings, end of season standings with bowl berths are predicted based on the remaining matchups (note that where available, true bowl names are substituted for stupid sponsor names):

1. #1 Kansas State (12-0, 9-0) - BCS National Championship
2. #12 Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1) - Fiesta Bowl
3. #15 Texas (9-3, 6-3) - Cotton Bowl
4. #24 Oklahoma State (8-4, 6-3) - Alamo Bowl
5. #23 Texas Tech (8-4, 5-4) - Copper Bowl
6. Iowa State (7-5, 4-5) - Holiday Bowl
7. Texas Christian (6-6, 3-6) - Texas Bowl
8. West Virginia (6-6, 3-6) - Pinstripe Bowl
9. Baylor (4-8, 1-9)
10. Kansas (1-11, 0-10)

On to this weekend.  We have four upcoming matchups in the Big 12; Texas and TCU are on bye.

Predictions:

Kansas State 45, Baylor 27

Iowa State 28, Kansas 22

Oklahoma 47, West Virginia 28

Oklahoma State 34, Texas Tech 28

The first thing I find fascinating about these predictions is that they all, with the exception of Kansas, look like actual honest-to-God common football scores (unlike many of the predictions in recent weeks).  Interesting.

The spreadsheet believes that the two leaders of the Big 12 will pick up easy wins this weekend.  KSU is favored by 18 points over Baylor; Oklahoma by 19 over WVU.  I see no reason to doubt these predictions, and in fact, any score differential over about 7-10 points has been a pretty sure thing thus far.

Baylor's defense is going to struggle to find an answer to Kansas State's offense.  As of this weekend, Kansas State has scored 111 points off opponent turnovers; the Wildcats' opponents have scored 7 (a touchdown by TCU with less than a minute left in the game, down 3-23).  If nobody else has been able to assist Bill Snyder's team in beating itself, Baylor's defense certainly won't.  If, in turn, the Bears don't defeat themselves and protect the ball, this game could be closer than the spreadsheet indicates, although I still don't see a way for them to win.  If Baylor doesn't hold on to the football (and I mean no more than zero turnovers, basically), look for the differential to be much uglier.  In any case, a KSU loss this weekend would represent the upset of the year, possibly even a bigger upset than last year's OSU-ISU game.

The longer WVU's free fall goes on, the less I believe they are likely to come out for any one game with pride, play with fire in their belly, and grab the upset.  The WVU defense continues to struggle in epic fashion.  Oklahoma is probably a more physically talented team than any the Mountaineers have faced to this point; but OU is prone to mental errors and making mistakes.  Can WVU somehow overcome the talent differential by capitalizing on Sooner mistakes?  Honestly I doubt it.  I don't see how WVU pulls off this upset; if their defense is fortunate enough to create some turnovers, the OU defense is talented enough to get their own turnovers in return.  At least WVU still has Kansas left on their schedule.

Iowa State is favored only by 6 points over Kansas.  This is going to be an interesting matchup.  On the one hand, the Cyclones were blasted by UT last weekend in a matchup that, on paper, certainly was nowhere near that one-sided.  Does this damage their confidence, or does it make them mad?  On the other hand, Kansas managed to take the Red Raiders to overtime last weekend - do the Jayhawks come into the game with more confidence and the feeling that their best shot for a conference win is right here and now?  If they do, and ISU is still reeling from the body blows landed by the Longhorns last week in Austin, this one could be an upset.  But I'm going with the spreadsheet: ISU becomes the 7th Big 12 bowl eligible team this weekend.

Finally, Oklahoma State takes on Texas Tech.  With a win, the Cowboys go a long way towards cementing their standing as the 3rd place team in the league.  A Tech win, conversely, will send the Red Raiders up in the standings with a chance to displace UT in 3rd if the Longhorns lose again (and remember, Texas still has Kansas State on the schedule).  A couple of weeks ago, I picked this game to decide the 3rd place team in the power rankings, and that still could be the case.  This will be another good game to watch: if we're going to have an upset this weekend, I think it will come at the hands of the Red Raiders.