Big 12 Predictions and Bowl Projections, Week 14

One more weekend of college football in the Big 12 remains.  My, how the season has flown.  With two teams finished with conference play and eight teams with one game remaining, here are the conference standings:

1. #6 Kansas State (10-1, 7-1)
2. #11 Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1)
3. #18 Texas (8-3, 5-3)
4. #23 Oklahoma State (7-4, 5-3)
5. Texas Christian (7-4, 4-4)
6. Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5)
7. West Virginia (6-5, 3-5)
8. Baylor (6-5, 3-5)
9. Iowa State (6-6, 3-6)
10. Kansas (1-10, 0-8)

That is a lot of bowl eligible teams.  Wondering how that happened?  Compare the overall records and the conference records, paying attention to the losses.  The Oklahoma schools dropped one game each in out-of-conference play, and Kansas dropped 2.  That's it.  Three out-of-conference losses.  (For comparison, by my count the ACC has had 21 out-of-conference losses, the B1G, 15; the PAC-12, 11; the SEC, 8.  Corrections of arithmetical mistakes would be appreciated.)  Every other loss by a Big 12 team has come at the hands of another Big 12 team; and all but one of those teams will finish with at least .500 records.  90% of a conference's teams being bowl eligible is unprecedented, and some are touting it as signs of the depth of the conference.  Others complain that parity is being confused with depth.  Certainly the quality of out-of-conference play can vary wildly, and the Big 12 played it's share of cupcakes.  Regardless, it should be clear to any observer, partisan or otherwise, that the Big 12 conference play has been an absolute bloodbath this year - parity indeed is the word of the day.

Here are updated bowl projections.  The wildcard in all of this is Oklahoma's berth.  There are, of course, 10 BCS slots.  The Big East, B1G, and ACC should not get two slots; then again, the ACC didn't deserve two slots last year but Virginia Tech squeaked into the Sugar Bowl (which should be ashamed of itself) anyway.  The PAC-12 and SEC, on the other hand, are very likely to score a couple of slots each.  That accounts for 7 slots; Kent State may swipe another (thanks, Big East) and Notre Dame will take it's place in the national championship game.  Put the Big 12 conference champion in the Fiesta, and that's all 10 slots filled.  We're going to assume that the Big 12 gets shut out of at-large BCS berths and proceed from there.

1. Kansas State (11-1, 8-1) - Fiesta Bowl (first selection, conference champ)
2. Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1) - Cotton Bowl (second)
3. Oklahoma State (8-4, 6-3) - Alamo Bowl (third)
4. Texas (8-4, 5-4) - Copper Bowl (fourth)
5. Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5) - Texas Bowl (sixth)
6. West Virginia (7-5, 4-5) - Holiday Bowl (fifth)
7. Texas Christian (7-5, 4-5) - Pinstripe Bowl (seventh)
8. Iowa State (6-6, 3-6) - ???
9. Baylor (6-6, 3-6) - Heart of Dallas Bowl (eighth)
10. Kansas (1-11, 0-9)

Don't worry, Cyclone fans, I feel confident ya'll are going somewhere.  I just don't know where.  By a rough count of the major conferences' bowls, there will be at least one Big East (more if UConn and Pitt lose this weekend), one B1G, and two ACC slots open.  Right now there are 70 bowl berths available, and there are 71 teams eligible after Georgia Tech's request for a waiver was approved (anyone else feel that the Yellow Jackets just aren't very confident heading in to the ACC championship game?).  I honestly can't see Iowa State passed over by a bowl selection committee in favor of such powerhouses as Western Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette.

And I'll admit it probably wouldn't completely fair for Baylor to get that last Big 12 berth if they end up with the same record of the team that dominated them a month ago.  But there's the rub: it was a month ago, and since that happened Baylor has beaten the #1 team in the country, has gotten bowl eligibility against all odds, and (best of all from the selection committee's view) has remained a Texas university with a lot of grads living in Texas.  Iowa State, on the other hand, has gone 1-3 since that victory over Baylor; the lone win coming against Kansas.  A shame; I really thought this was shaping up to be a breakout year for the Cyclones.

The only other little wrinkle I predict is the Holiday Bowl skipping Texas Tech in favor of West Virginia.  Will that happen?  Not really sure, and West Virginia is admittedly a good way from San Diego; but if I'm the bowl committee I might be looking to take advantage of the Mountaineer excitement surrounding their first year in the Big 12.  On top of that, West Virginia is closing out its season on a relative high note - a competitive game against Oklahoma, a win over ISU, and I've got to believe a win over Kansas.  Lose that Kansas game and it will be hello, Pinstripe Bowl.  Conversely, Texas Tech has been sliding of late; they're 1-4 in their last 5 games, have lost their last two, and that lone victory came against Kansas.

I've got to believe that the Texas bowl right now is licking its lips.  They can't lose this year.  Just about any way the selection process shakes down they're assured a Texas fanbase.

Time for this week's matchups.  Four games to close out the year; Texas Tech and Iowa State have finished their seasons.

Predictions:

Oklahoma State 42, Baylor 33

West Virginia 38, Kansas 30

Kansas State 38, Texas 28

Oklahoma 38, Texas Christian 28

Oklahoma State has been hot lately.  They led the whole way in Bedlam, until the very end; and they blew out a Texas Tech team that appeared pretty evenly matched with Baylor.  They should win this game to take 3rd place in the conference and set themselves up for an Alamo Bowl berth, or perhaps (depending on the BCS picture) a Cotton Bowl slot.

WVU and Kansas.  What can you say?  Everyone has been favored over Kansas; this week is no different.  Fortunate break for WVU; even during their slide in the mid-late portion of the season, once they had 5 wins they could at least circle this game on the calendar and feel fairly certain that they were going to be bowl-bound, at the very worst.  Now they don't have to worry about eligiblity; this game is all about getting to a better postseason spot.

The two top teams in the conference are both favored in their games by 10.  It will be particularly interesting to see how KSU comes back after a crushing loss to Baylor in Waco followed by a Thanksgiving weekend bye to stew in their own juices.  Oklahoma has to be hoping the Wildcats will come out deflated; a KSU loss would give OU that Fiesta Bowl berth.  Oklahoma, meanwhile, has an interesting matchup against TCU.  On paper Oklahoma ought to be just fine; as always, I continue to have doubts, not about the Sooners' ability to dominate a game, but about their likelihood to do so.  TCU stepped up to the plate last weekend and delivered a solid performance despite my doubts.  Much as I hate to do so after a decade of whiny toad moaning about being left out of the Big 12 (despite being generally a worse team than Baylor in the last decades of the old Southwest Conference), I have to tip my hat to them.  I think the Horned Frogs were taken down a peg this season; but they have overcome a lot of adversity this season, and Gary Patterson has more than earned a spot next to Bill Snyder, Art Briles, and Mike Gundy when it comes to talent development by the conference coaches.