Big 12 Predictions, Week 10

Charts and pretty colors are nice and all, but the time has again come to put it all on the line and stake out some predictions for the upcoming week.  If you want to know how I got these numbers, take a look at the explanation in the Week 9 predictions.  While I have some reservations regarding this week's predictions, which I will explain, I am pleased with the spreadsheet's performance last week. I went 3-1 with my predictions, the one erroneous call coming on the Oklahoma State-TCU game that statistically came out even. So, no tweaks for now; we'll stick with that method for another week.

Predictions:

Baylor 35, Kansas 30

Oklahoma 38, Iowa State 20

Kansas State 33, Oklahoma State 24

Texas Christian 42, West Virginia 34

Texas Tech 39, Texas 36

Well, I don't mind telling you that the TCU-WVU matchup prediction grabbed my attention, and grabbed it hard.  I went back through my numbers closely and darn if they didn't all seem to check out.  This is definitely going to be a game to watch.  In particular the spreadsheet is not happy with WVU's defense (with good reason) but I do think this prediction is likely to be off for a couple of reasons.  I would imagine that WVU will come out angry about the last couple of weeks; they're going to be playing at home; and while TCU racked up a lot of scoring off of Baylor turnovers a couple of weeks ago, WVU is a bit better about not turning the ball over.  Still, WVU has an absolutely dreadful defense, and inasmuch as Boykin lit up Baylor, he certainly has the capacity to do the same to the Mountaineers.

The Texas Tech-Texas game looks to be a pretty good matchup.  Like so many other times this season, I think things are going to come down to Texas' quarterback play, and by things I mean whether or not the game is even close.  Tech's numbers are a bit depressed from having played the two toughest teams in the conference and having played only one of the three tragicomic defenses in the league.  I look for them to light up UT's defense; if UT's offense is missing in action again this week, the score won't be that close.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that Baylor should take care of business against Kansas.  The Bears ought to have enough offensive firepower to take care of a mediocre Big 12 defense, and if ever there was a team that a struggling defense ought to be able to stop, it is a Jayhawk team scoring on less than 20% of its drives.  Nonetheless, these two teams look fairly well matched by the numbers, for a couple of reasons.  First, Kansas has managed to hold some decent offenses in (relatively speaking) check - OSU and TCU scored 20 points on them; Texas, 21.  I think Baylor's offense is more likely to succeed against the Jayhawk defense than Texas, if for no other reason than Baylor's quarterback situation is rather less volatile, but as we've seen, Baylor has shot itself in the foot a bit with turnovers.  (Of course, that is easy to do when you have a defense stuck on autotouchdown; Baylor is still giving up 7 points every time an opponent scores.)  If there is one thing that history implies, it is that Kansas is almost certain to have its best offensive game of the season against the Bears' defense.  If Kansas really is able to score 30 points on Baylor, the Bears will have a tough row to hoe.  A Kansas offense able to get enough going that their defense smells blood in the water would spell a long afternoon for Baylor.  If, on the other hand, Baylor takes care of the ball and doesn't give Kansas too many opportunities to poke additional holes in a defense that already looks like an abused slice of Swiss cheese, the Bears should get their 4th win of the year.

The remaining two games seem to be shaking down as expected.  Looking at last week's results, the projected margins of victory seem to be minimized when performance over a season is averaged (except for the Texas-Kansas game), so seeing Oklahoma projected to outscore Iowa State by 18 points raises my eyebrows a bit - this looks like a recipe for a blowout.  But any fan of college football ought to know the consequences of taking Paul Rhodes and the Cyclones at home too lightly.  KSU appears to be a comfortable favorite over OSU; with the Red Raiders scoring almost exactly what the spreadsheet projected last week, the Cowboys are unsurprisingly projected to do the same.  Oklahoma State's defense has statistically been a bit more stingy than Texas Tech's: the Cowboys gave up 41 points to UT but held the remainder of their opponents to 14 points or less.  Tech, meanwhile, gave up 55 to KSU, 41 to OU, and 53 to TCU.  Having said that, I think Tech's opponents definitely possessed a bit more firepower, and OSU hasn't faced anything like Optimus Klein.  I look to see KSU beating this projected point total, probably scoring in the mid 40s or so.

Bonus Round: No out-of-conference game this week, so for this week's bonus challenge, we'll have to go with something a little different: can anyone find me a video or picture of Collin Klein rushing when he does NOT have the ball tucked away perfectly?

Seriously, that would be like some sort of photographic proof of the existence of Bigfoot, or the Loch Ness Monster, or of Texas A&M winning the 1997 and 2010 Big 12 Championships.

Finally, don't forget to tune in to see Bama-LSU and USC-Oregon, two major matchups with huge national championship implications.  Will LSU's defense be able to stop a very good Bama offense and give the rest of the nation hope that the Crimson Tide can be stemmed?  Can Southern Cal rebound against perhaps the most potent offense in the country?  It's going to be a good weekend of college football, folks.  See you after the dust settles.