Big 12 conference play is well underway. All but two teams have played 4 conference games; Baylor and Oklahoma State have played 3. The conference standings are as follows:
- #4 Kansas State (7-0, 4-0)
- #15 Texas Tech (6-1, 3-1)
- #8 Oklahoma (5-1, 3-1)
- Oklahoma State (4-2, 2-1)
- Texas Christian (5-2, 2-2)
- Texas (5-2, 2-2)
- #25 West Virginia (5-2, 2-2)
- Iowa State (4-3, 1-3)
- Baylor (3-3, 0-3)
- Kansas (1-6, 0-4)
Basic offensive and defensive statistics:
Let's get these into chart form and examine them a bit more closely. It bears noting right at the start that TCU's and Texas Tech's numbers are a tad bit skewed by their epic overtime game last weekend.
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| CHART 1 |
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| CHART 2 |
From these two charts a rough idea of offensive performance can be obtained. Kansas State, Oklahoma, Baylor, and TCU are scoring on more than 50% of their drives right now; Baylor and Kansas State are also scoring a respectable number of points per drive. Oklahoma and TCU, conversely, are down below 6 points per scoring drive. On the other side of the coin, you can see just how anemic Kansas' offense is relative to the current Big 12 standard. They are scoring on just under 15% of their drives, and are right there with Oklahoma below 5 points per drive. One last thought before leaving these charts: Baylor has as many drives in 3 conference games as Kansas State has in 4.
So how much better would each offense have to perform to keep their team undefeated thus far?
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| CHART 3 |
Woah. Given the fact that Baylor's offense appears to be matching up pretty well against the rest, this is our first inkling of why they are 0-3 in conference play thus far. Baylor would have to have scored on more than 70% of their drives, given their average points per drive, to win all 3 games. WVU's offense also seems to have been under some pressure to perform. Note that Kansas State's bar height is unchanged, reflecting their undefeated status.
You've probably been scrolling up and down between this chart and the Chart 1. Let's put the two together so you don't have to do that anymore:
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| CHART 4 |
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| CHART 5 |
In both charts, we now have the team's actual fraction of scoring drives in front. In the top chart, the teams are arranged by the fraction of scoring they needed to overcome their differential; in the bottom, by the difference between their needed and actual scoring drives. In the bottom, Kansas State of course has no difference between the fraction of actual and needed scoring drives. The two Oklahoma schools follow, falling short of undefeated by only 5 points in their respective single losses. The gaps widen to reflect blowouts - Kansas by KSU, Baylor by TCU, West Virginia by Texas Tech.
Here's a question: how much more of a differential would the offenses have to overcome without counting those teams' defensive contributions? Look below: this is the same chart as Chart 4, but with a middle row added disregarding defensive scores off the offenses.
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| CHART 6 |
Not a whole lot of change, but one subtlety in particular speaks volumes. KSU's middle bar bumps up just a tad, and why is that? They beat Oklahoma by 5 points...and 7 of those points came off a fumble recovery for touchdown. That little bump tells a story between being 3-1 in Big 12 play and hanging out somewhere between #15-20 in the rankings, and being undefeated, #3 in the BCS standings, and generating a fair amount of Heisman buzz for Collin Klein.
Let's see what happens when we disregard the teams' defensive scoring and some points scored by opponents off turnovers. How much harder did the offenses make their jobs with turnovers?
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| CHART 7 |
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| CHART 8 |
In Chart 7 we additionally disregard any opponent points off turnovers that occurred with the offense driving inside the defenses' 20 yard line. Sure, it's disappointing to miss points down there, but the defense can hardly complain about that situation. There's not a whole lot of change, but one more little subtlety related to that OU-Kansas State game pops up. OU's middle bar slips down a hair, reflecting a long KSU drive following a Blake Bell fumble that resulted in a Wildcat field goal. Not giving up that score wouldn't have won OU the game, but it is yet another little mistake that opened the door for Snyder's team to slip through. Moving down to Chart 8, and now disregarding any opponent points off turnovers that occurred beyond the offenses' own 35 yard line, now we start to see those middle bars dropping. Again, the OU-KSU game looms large. OU's middle bar now matches its actual scoring drives, reflecting the fact that not only did Kansas State score a defensive touchdown, 10 of the rest of their points also came after turnovers. Again, the difference between a #3 and a #8 BCS ranking. (While we're on the subject, it is worth noting that KSU has given opponents no points - as in ZERO - off of turnovers in any way. The only points they've given a defense came against Kansas when John Hubert was pulled down in his own end zone for a safety. You really have to be perfect playing against Kansas State; they will be when they play you.)
I could go further and disregard points off any turnovers, but that just doesn't seem fair - if the offense gives the opposing team such a short field to work with, we're not going to let them off the hook by decreasing a negative score differential any further.
Finally, let's just see how these teams' overall scoring drives match with the minimum drives they would have needed to win all games:
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| CHART 9 |
For what it's worth, I don't particularly like this metric. For example, you can see that Oklahoma has scored more than enough points to win all of its games, many of them coming from the Sooners kicking Texas while the Longhorns were down. I provide this chart for some novelty value, partly so I can point out how easy KSU's defense has been making the Wildcats' offensive life easier, and partly so I can note that, despite all the talk of Texas' 'SEC-like' defense leading the way, they are in the same offensive juggernaut, defense optional boat as much as if not more than the rest of the conference. Texas', Baylor's, and WVU's defenses are battling it out for the title of worst defense in the Big 12; in fairness to them, however, all three teams have played one another, and all three of those teams have relatively quick-strike, high-powered offenses.
Let's quickly post up some defensive charts. The idea behind the defensive charts is essentially similar to that behind the offensive charts.
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| CHART 10 |
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| CHART 11 |
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| CHART 12 |
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| CHART 13 |
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| CHART 14 |
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| CHART 15 |
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| CHART 16 |
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| CHART 17 |
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| CHART 18 |
The first thing that pops out is just how bad of shape the Jayhawk offense is in. If you need that many stops to win games, you just aren't scoring. Having said that, a great deal of those needed defensive stops came during the KSU and OU blowouts, and as West Virginia, Texas, and Texas Tech can attest, those teams can put up a lot of points when they want to. Kansas didn't give up a whole ton of points to Oklahoma State and TCU; of course, the Cowboys have been struggling with injuries at the QB position, but then again, TCU still had Pachall for the Kansas game.
If there is a glimmer of hope to Kansas' season to date, it is that their defense seems to easily be beating out WVU's, Texas', and Baylor's. The two latter defenses by all rights should be able to sit back, relax, and enjoy the games; the fact that they aren't says quite a lot about the defensive ineptitude on those teams. The stat that is most damning regarding Baylor's defense in particular is points per opponent scoring drive. Count 'em: SEVEN. The Bears are handing out touchdowns like candy on Halloween. The statistics sound like one of those commercials for a home security system or a cancer treatment center: "Once every 62 seconds of game time, an opponent scores a point on Baylor" (cue sad violin music in the background and shots of worried faces).
On the other side of things, Oklahoma's defense is shaping up to be a real monster. As we've already seen, the defense has played more than well enough for OU to be undefeated this season. Take away just one or two miscues on offense in the KSU game and the Sooners are probably either sitting at #2 in the BCS, or control their own destiny with a game against Notre Dame in Norman coming up this weekend.
That, though, is not to take anything away from Kansas State. They are racking up stops as well, and are in the middle of the pack with respect to points allowed per drive. The biggest number for Kansas State right now, though, doesn't appear on the charts: that number is 41, the number of drives the Wildcats' opponents have had through 4 conference games. Only Baylor's and OSU's opponents have fewer - and those two teams have only played 3 conference games. Of the other teams that have played 4 conference games, Kansas' opponents have 44 total drives; WVU's, 46; all the rest, 49 or more. As mentioned above, you have to be perfect playing Kansas State, because A) they will be perfect when they play you, and B) you will not have many chances to get it right.
And that, my friends, is the initial installment of the Big 12 Spreadsheet Analysis. A list of Week 10 predictions based on this data is forthcoming shortly, and then there's nothing left but the waiting for the weekend.
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