Big 12 Predictions and Bowl Projections, Week 14

One more weekend of college football in the Big 12 remains.  My, how the season has flown.  With two teams finished with conference play and eight teams with one game remaining, here are the conference standings:

1. #6 Kansas State (10-1, 7-1)
2. #11 Oklahoma (9-2, 7-1)
3. #18 Texas (8-3, 5-3)
4. #23 Oklahoma State (7-4, 5-3)
5. Texas Christian (7-4, 4-4)
6. Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5)
7. West Virginia (6-5, 3-5)
8. Baylor (6-5, 3-5)
9. Iowa State (6-6, 3-6)
10. Kansas (1-10, 0-8)

That is a lot of bowl eligible teams.  Wondering how that happened?  Compare the overall records and the conference records, paying attention to the losses.  The Oklahoma schools dropped one game each in out-of-conference play, and Kansas dropped 2.  That's it.  Three out-of-conference losses.  (For comparison, by my count the ACC has had 21 out-of-conference losses, the B1G, 15; the PAC-12, 11; the SEC, 8.  Corrections of arithmetical mistakes would be appreciated.)  Every other loss by a Big 12 team has come at the hands of another Big 12 team; and all but one of those teams will finish with at least .500 records.  90% of a conference's teams being bowl eligible is unprecedented, and some are touting it as signs of the depth of the conference.  Others complain that parity is being confused with depth.  Certainly the quality of out-of-conference play can vary wildly, and the Big 12 played it's share of cupcakes.  Regardless, it should be clear to any observer, partisan or otherwise, that the Big 12 conference play has been an absolute bloodbath this year - parity indeed is the word of the day.

Here are updated bowl projections.  The wildcard in all of this is Oklahoma's berth.  There are, of course, 10 BCS slots.  The Big East, B1G, and ACC should not get two slots; then again, the ACC didn't deserve two slots last year but Virginia Tech squeaked into the Sugar Bowl (which should be ashamed of itself) anyway.  The PAC-12 and SEC, on the other hand, are very likely to score a couple of slots each.  That accounts for 7 slots; Kent State may swipe another (thanks, Big East) and Notre Dame will take it's place in the national championship game.  Put the Big 12 conference champion in the Fiesta, and that's all 10 slots filled.  We're going to assume that the Big 12 gets shut out of at-large BCS berths and proceed from there.

1. Kansas State (11-1, 8-1) - Fiesta Bowl (first selection, conference champ)
2. Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1) - Cotton Bowl (second)
3. Oklahoma State (8-4, 6-3) - Alamo Bowl (third)
4. Texas (8-4, 5-4) - Copper Bowl (fourth)
5. Texas Tech (7-5, 4-5) - Texas Bowl (sixth)
6. West Virginia (7-5, 4-5) - Holiday Bowl (fifth)
7. Texas Christian (7-5, 4-5) - Pinstripe Bowl (seventh)
8. Iowa State (6-6, 3-6) - ???
9. Baylor (6-6, 3-6) - Heart of Dallas Bowl (eighth)
10. Kansas (1-11, 0-9)

Don't worry, Cyclone fans, I feel confident ya'll are going somewhere.  I just don't know where.  By a rough count of the major conferences' bowls, there will be at least one Big East (more if UConn and Pitt lose this weekend), one B1G, and two ACC slots open.  Right now there are 70 bowl berths available, and there are 71 teams eligible after Georgia Tech's request for a waiver was approved (anyone else feel that the Yellow Jackets just aren't very confident heading in to the ACC championship game?).  I honestly can't see Iowa State passed over by a bowl selection committee in favor of such powerhouses as Western Kentucky and Louisiana-Lafayette.

And I'll admit it probably wouldn't completely fair for Baylor to get that last Big 12 berth if they end up with the same record of the team that dominated them a month ago.  But there's the rub: it was a month ago, and since that happened Baylor has beaten the #1 team in the country, has gotten bowl eligibility against all odds, and (best of all from the selection committee's view) has remained a Texas university with a lot of grads living in Texas.  Iowa State, on the other hand, has gone 1-3 since that victory over Baylor; the lone win coming against Kansas.  A shame; I really thought this was shaping up to be a breakout year for the Cyclones.

The only other little wrinkle I predict is the Holiday Bowl skipping Texas Tech in favor of West Virginia.  Will that happen?  Not really sure, and West Virginia is admittedly a good way from San Diego; but if I'm the bowl committee I might be looking to take advantage of the Mountaineer excitement surrounding their first year in the Big 12.  On top of that, West Virginia is closing out its season on a relative high note - a competitive game against Oklahoma, a win over ISU, and I've got to believe a win over Kansas.  Lose that Kansas game and it will be hello, Pinstripe Bowl.  Conversely, Texas Tech has been sliding of late; they're 1-4 in their last 5 games, have lost their last two, and that lone victory came against Kansas.

I've got to believe that the Texas bowl right now is licking its lips.  They can't lose this year.  Just about any way the selection process shakes down they're assured a Texas fanbase.

Time for this week's matchups.  Four games to close out the year; Texas Tech and Iowa State have finished their seasons.

Predictions:

Oklahoma State 42, Baylor 33

West Virginia 38, Kansas 30

Kansas State 38, Texas 28

Oklahoma 38, Texas Christian 28

Oklahoma State has been hot lately.  They led the whole way in Bedlam, until the very end; and they blew out a Texas Tech team that appeared pretty evenly matched with Baylor.  They should win this game to take 3rd place in the conference and set themselves up for an Alamo Bowl berth, or perhaps (depending on the BCS picture) a Cotton Bowl slot.

WVU and Kansas.  What can you say?  Everyone has been favored over Kansas; this week is no different.  Fortunate break for WVU; even during their slide in the mid-late portion of the season, once they had 5 wins they could at least circle this game on the calendar and feel fairly certain that they were going to be bowl-bound, at the very worst.  Now they don't have to worry about eligiblity; this game is all about getting to a better postseason spot.

The two top teams in the conference are both favored in their games by 10.  It will be particularly interesting to see how KSU comes back after a crushing loss to Baylor in Waco followed by a Thanksgiving weekend bye to stew in their own juices.  Oklahoma has to be hoping the Wildcats will come out deflated; a KSU loss would give OU that Fiesta Bowl berth.  Oklahoma, meanwhile, has an interesting matchup against TCU.  On paper Oklahoma ought to be just fine; as always, I continue to have doubts, not about the Sooners' ability to dominate a game, but about their likelihood to do so.  TCU stepped up to the plate last weekend and delivered a solid performance despite my doubts.  Much as I hate to do so after a decade of whiny toad moaning about being left out of the Big 12 (despite being generally a worse team than Baylor in the last decades of the old Southwest Conference), I have to tip my hat to them.  I think the Horned Frogs were taken down a peg this season; but they have overcome a lot of adversity this season, and Gary Patterson has more than earned a spot next to Bill Snyder, Art Briles, and Mike Gundy when it comes to talent development by the conference coaches.

Big 12 Recap, Week 13

Did I say a great weekend of football, or what?

The spreadsheet went 2-2 this week, for an overall record of 17-5 since its inception.  The proudest prediction must surely be the Baylor-Texas Tech game, which was predicted to be essentially even and indeed was decided in overtime.  Let's look at the week in a bit more detail.

Prediction: Baylor 37, Texas Tech 37


Reality: Baylor 52, Texas Tech 45

Game Notes: It didn't have to be this way.  Aaron Jones managed to miss three field goals in regulation, the last coming as time expired with the score tied up at 45.  Of course, he probably would have hit that last field goal without a botched snap that backed the Bears up 7 yards beforehand.  Of course, the Bears wouldn't even have been in the position to win it with a field goal as time expired without a bizarre interception coming on a Texas Tech screen play in which Seth Doege threw a pass that bounced off a blocking lineman's head.

In short, missed opportunities, mistakes, and head-scratching play calling littered the field at the end of this one.  Bears fans are surely happy, as Baylor is now 6-5 and bowl eligible for three straight years - the first time in school history.  Perhaps more importantly from a perceptions point of view, they did it without RGIII on the field, although the rookie phenom was on the sidelines watching his alma mater, 48 hours after lighting up the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day and scoring 40+ fantasy football points for Yours Truly.

Texas Tech's offense was clicking, the Red Raider defense shut Baylor's red-zone offense completely down, and (as mentioned above) Jones misfired twice early in the game to put Tech ahead 21-7 late in the second quarter.  But then Tech fumbled deep in Baylor territory with less than 1:30 left in the half, and eight plays and a massively blown coverage later Baylor had pulled to within 7.  And I am not understating how terribly the Tech defense blew that coverage; from the Texas Tech 39, Levi Norwood ran straight towards the endzone and nobody at all twitched a muscle in his direction until it was far, far too late.

Tech got the ball to start the second half and put themselves ahead by 10 with a field goal.  Baylor answered a couple of drives later with a touchdown, and then Leon Mackey fielded the ensuing kickoff at his own 3 and blasted upfield for a 97 yard touchdown return.  That's one way for Baylor to get its defense a little rest, I suppose.  The Bears answered with a touchdown drive and the score was 28-31 with a little over 2 minutes left in the 3rd.  And then the Baylor defense returned to its opportunistic ways.  Eddie Lackey picked off Doege for a touchdown to give Baylor its first lead of the game.

Baylor picked up another TD and the Red Raiders racked up two more of their own before Jones trotted out to kick his only good field goal of the night, a 22 yarder that tied the game up at 45.  With 2:48 left in the game, Tech picked up a first down, then set up a screen, and then Doege bounced that pass off his lineman's head into Lackey's arms.  But Baylor couldn't put the game away, and into overtime it went, where Baylor took 4 rushing plays for Glasco Martin IV to put the ball into the end zone, dragged and pushed along by his linemen and tight end.  Tech took over: a holding call backed them up 10 yards, and then Doege threw two incompletions before hitting a receiver across the middle for 15 yards.  4th and 5.  Doege dropped back, fired a pass towards a slanting receiver, and the Baylor defender was all over the play.  The pass was broken up.  And just like that, 90% of the Big 12 was bowl-eligible.

Prediction: Iowa State 36, West Virginia 33

Reality: West Virginia 31, Iowa State 24

Game Notes: another competitive Big 12 game this weekend.  WVU scored about what the spreadsheet predicted, but ISU fell short.  Tavon Austin added to his already impressive season with a 75 yard touchdown run (officially a pass reception on a sweep, with Geno Smith flicking the ball foward) and subsequent rush for a two point conversion, but the WVU hero of the day had to be Shawn Alston, who carried the ball for 130 yards and a touchdown on a blustery November afternoon.  Iowa State was in the game until the end, leading 24-23 with half of the 4th quarter to go before Austin's run.  And they drove down the field after that touchdown, reaching 1st and goal at the WVU 7-yard line before a crushing, crushing fumble in the end zone was recovered by the Mountaineers with just under 4 minutes in the game.  The Cyclones never got the ball back; Austin and Alston rushed for 3 first downs and the Mountaineers became bowl eligible, going to 6-5 with a game against Kansas left to play.

Prediction: Oklahoma 47, Oklahoma State 32


Reality: Oklahoma 51, Oklahoma State 48

Game Notes: another thrilling chapter was added to the Bedlam series.  In the second overtime game of the weekend, Oklahoma absorbed Oklahoma State's best shot, playing from behind the entire game...except the end.  Blake Bell rushed for a touchdown with seconds remaining in the 4th to tie the game up at 45; the OU defense held the Cowboys to a field goal in the first possession of overtime; and two plays later Brennan Clay took the ball in for a touchdown to give the Sooners at once their first lead of the game and the win.  Landry Jones threw for 500 yards and became the Big 12 passing leader in the win; and the Sooners' hopes for a BCS berth remain alive.  They can win the Big 12 outright with a win over TCU and a KSU loss to UT next week; they may still slip into an at-large spot.  Oklahoma State dropped to 7-4 and needs to beat Baylor next week to avoid becoming entangled in a potential logjam of seven-win Big 12 teams.

Prediction: Texas 34, Texas Christian 33
Reality: Texas Christian 20, Texas 13

Game Notes: a low scoring loss for the spreadsheet, and probably the most surprising result of the weekend for me.  Texas had seemed to be getting their act together in the weeks leading up to this game, but yet again quarterback play hamstrung the Longhorns.  TCU, on the other hand, got back on track with a win in their first Thanksgiving Day game since 1928, and recorded their first victory in Austin since 1967 (which, by my count, means they had approximately 14 attempts to do so in the last decades of the old Southwest Conference).  Props must be given to TCU for its performance this season; not a few onlookers wondered how the Frogs would fare after losing Pachall in September.

Around the country, Alabama beat up on Auburn, Georgia beat up on Georgia Tech, and Florida beat Florida State.  For those keeping track at home, Alabama is hovering at #2 in the BCS, Georgia at #3, and Florida at #4; Oregon, who beat Oregon State, is at #5.  Bama and Georgia are going to Atlanta to settle the SEC championship; with Stanford crushing UCLA at the time of this writing, Oregon will almost assuredly be watching the PAC-12 championship game from home.  #1 Notre Dame is leading USC 10-7 at the start of the 2nd quarter at the time of this posting.  Anyone who is not a fan of the SEC must certainly be hoping with bated breath for a Notre Dame victory; in a supremely ironic twist, folks in SEC country have got to be pulling just as hard for Lane Kiffin's Trojans.  A Notre Dame loss virtually assures another all-SEC BCS championship game, with Florida taking on the SEC champion.

Yet again, another college football season hangs in the balance.  Did I say a great weekend of football, or what?

Big 12 Predictions, Week 13

Happy Thanksgiving, folks!  It's rivalry weekend, and we're going retro here at the Big 12 Spreadsheet.

Hope you're ready for a great weekend of football, especially for fans in Texas - Thanksgiving day features the Texans in Detroit, RGIII returning to Dallas, and UT gearing up to take on TCU.  Since this is a short week I'm going to fire up the predictions tonight to get them in under the wire.

Predictions:

Baylor 37, Texas Tech 37

Iowa State 36, West Virginia 33

Oklahoma 47, Oklahoma State 32

Texas 34, Texas Christian 33

Did I say great weekend of football or what?  The ISU-WVU matchup is within 3 points, the Thanksgiving night clash of horned toads vs horned bovines is within 1, and the BUTT Bowl is straight up even.  And heck, I'm having a hard time believing that Oklahoma will dominate Bedlam so thoroughly.

I have a suspicion that the spreadsheet's record will suffer this penultimate weekend of the college football season, but we the fans will be the beneficiaries.

Looking at the matchups in a bit more detail, by the numbers Baylor and Tech are pretty evenly matched.  Assuming an overtime game, Baylor has scored 3 touchdowns out of 3 on drives starting inside the 35 to date; Texas Tech has scored 7 touchdowns out of 8 drives starting inside the 35 (including that overtime win against TCU)...so even this attempt to ferret out a winner fails to cleanly differentiate the teams.  I'm going to go with gut feel here and give the edge to Baylor, primarily for their defensive performance against Kansas State.  If that defense shows up to play, I have a hard time seeing how Baylor loses; then again, if that defense had shown up to play all year, Baylor would almost certainly be 7-3 right now at the very worst, and at best could be 9-1.  I'm not kidding; that defensive performance was absolutely dominant, and without an interception on the Baylor 1 yard line and a pseudo-onside kick after Baylor's first touchdown recovered by the Wildcats on the Baylor 38, KSU could easily have been held only to 10 points.  Baylor will be riding high after last weekend; Texas Tech, after suffering a severe beating at the hands of OSU will be riding almost as low.  It will be interesting to see how each team responds to the events of last weekend.

I'd picked ISU to win over WVU a couple of weeks ago when I was prognosticating a possible 8 win season for ISU.  The spreadsheet still thinks ISU will win.  After the Revelation of Tavon Austin, Running Back, against Oklahoma last week, I'm decidedly less sanguine regarding ISU's chances.  As we have all season, we'll let the spreadsheet's prediction stand, however.

Oklahoma looks to have a solid edge against Oklahoma State.  I'm starting to sound like a broken record, but yet again I am completely confident that OU has both the talent to dominate the game and the potential to let it slip away through mistakes and mental errors.  It is Bedlam; either team showing up unprepared would be inexcusable.

The spreadsheet gives only a 1 point edge to Texas over TCU.  I think this game will go UT's way, and I personally don't think it will be all that close.  Texas has managed to string together a 4 game win streak since being demolished by the Sooners, and done so due to a resurgence of the defense that had, preseason, been expected to be the Longhorns' strength, but which gave up more than 49 points per game in UT's first four conference games.  TCU, on the other hand, has struggled to find an identity in an inaugural Big 12 season riddled with losses due to injuries and extracurricular shenanigans.

Big 12 Recap, Week 12

Hmm.  The spreadsheet went 3-1 this week, making its overall record 15-3 since its inception.  It went 3-1, and did so in such a way as to make sane people question whether or not there is any use in attempting to speak intelligently about college football.

The Sooners' easy win turned into a 1 point squeaker.  Oklahoma State turned a supposedly even matchup with Texas Tech into a blowout.  And Kansas State suffered through what I would assume Todd Akin would term a decidedly legitimate game of football at the hands of Baylor.

Let's get to our predictions and see how everything ended up.

Prediction: Kansas State 45, Baylor 27
Reality: ESPN still says Baylor 52, Kansas State 24 this morning.  The more skeptical parts of my brain have been processing this since late last night to determine which of the following is the most reasonable explanation for that score: mass hypnosis, aliens, or that this is, indeed, reality.

Game Notes: during the Bears'...well, strange it does sound, but call it what it was...domination of the Wildcats, I found myself asking more than once "self, is this real life?"  And I asked that question not in the 'haha, funny!' way, but in the 'has diet Mountain Dew ever been shown to have hallucinogenic properties?' way.  In the understatement of the season, the spreadsheet really crapped the bed on this call; the less said about that the better.

Last night was a night of firsts.  For the first time since 2007, an unranked team took down the #1 BCS ranked team.  For the first time ever, a team with a losing record took down the #1 team.  For the first time this season, the Baylor defense showed up to play.

Nick Florence connected with Tevin Reese on a touchdown pass less than two minutes into the game.  Kansas State responded with a touchdown of their own.  And then the Bears opened up a 28-7 lead, and in the process refused to let the Wildcats capitalize off a Florence interception.  And then people not normally prone to doubting their own sanity began to wonder at what point their spouses were going to wake them up and tell them to get ready for church.

Kansas State racked up 10 points in the last 2 minutes of the half to cut the deficit to 28-17.  That seemed more like it.  An 11 point lead did not seem likely to hold up against the halftime adjustments of Bill Snyder and a group of Wildcat players sporting new orifices in their posteriors.  But then Baylor scored again to make it 35-17, and held KSU to a punt on their ensuing drive.

That punt was downed at the 1 yard line of Baylor, and despite having Martin and Seastrunk waiting in the wings, the Bears elected to throw on 1st and 2nd down.  The second pass was picked off at the 1 yard line, and Collin Klein promptly scored to make it 24-35.  Now, surely, the floodgates of Kansas State's scoring would open.

Incredibly, they did not open.  Baylor kicked a field goal and then punched in two rushing touchdowns to go up 52-24.  And in the meantime, the KSU drives went like this: a punt.  An interception in the endzone (the second of 3 on the night for Klein).  And then came a Wildcat drive to end the 3rd and start the 4th quarters; a drive that lasted more than 8 minutes; a drive punctuated by some of the nastiest hitting I've seen dished out by a defense this season; a drive that took KSU to 1st and goal at the Baylor 6; a drive at the end of which the starkly impossible happened, something to make people not normally prone to self-harming behavior start looking for a knife with which to cut on themselves, because pinching just wasn't getting the job done.

On 1st and goal, Baylor stopped Klein at the 2 yard line.

On 2nd and goal, Baylor stopped Klein at the 1.

On 3rd and goal, Baylor stopped Klein at the 1.

And on 4th and goal, BAYLOR.  STOPPED.  KLEIN.  AT.  THE.  ONE.

And that was the ball game, because then Baylor, a team renowned for its air raid, quick strike offense; Baylor, which lost by 1 point to Kansas State in Manhattan last year because it took its foot off the gas and tried to run clock; Baylor, a team that passes first and runs second, took over at its own 1 yard line with 7:51 left in the game and picked up 40 yards and 3 first downs on 10 straight rushing plays, and punted the ball back to the Wildcats with 32 seconds left to play.

And then Oregon missed a field goal in overtime and went down before Stanford.  And there was a disturbance in the Force, as if millions of voices all over America (except for in the Deep South) suddenly cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced.

Prediction: Iowa State 28, Kansas 22
Reality: Iowa State 51, Kansas 23.

No game notes for this matchup, as I didn't watch a minute of it.  Iowa State gets its 6th win of the season to become the Big 12's seventh bowl-eligible team.

Prediction: Oklahoma 47, West Virginia 28
Reality: Oklahoma 50, West Virginia 49

No real notes here either, as I only checked in briefly throughout the night.  The spreadsheet actually did an OK job with OU's score here; by the numbers, WVU overperformed last night, although the tragedy of the Mountaineers' season is that it is probably closer to the truth to say that their offense has underperformed severely in two of their losses, and underperformed somewhat less severely in the other two.  The less said about their defense (like Baylor's, at least before last night), the better.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34, Texas Tech 28
Reality: Oklahoma State 59, Texas Tech 21

Game Notes: interestingly enough, the scoring of this game was similar to the BU-KSU game.  OSU jumped out to a 7-0 lead; Tech tied the score up at 7-all, and then OSU scored 4 unanswered touchdowns.  Tech scored late in the half to make the score at halftime 35-14, Cowboys.  Oklahoma State then proceeded to dominate the 2nd half, racking up 24 more unanswered points before TTU scored a garbage-time TD to make the final 59-21.  The story of the game was turnovers and special teams' play: Doege threw 2 interceptions; the Red Raiders turned the ball over a third time on a bad snap; and Oklahoma State blocked two punts, returning one for a touchdown.

Bonus Round: since I didn't have a bonus in the predictions post, we'll do something a bit different this time.  Debate topic: Lache Seastrunk (5'10", 205 lbs) has the potential to be the next Barry Sanders (5'8", 200 lbs).  Discuss.

Big 12 Predictions, Week 12

We're closing in on the end now, folks.  One week to Thanksgiving, conference championship pictures and bowl projections are shaping up.  Six of the 10 Big 12 teams are bowl eligible; two more are a win away from eligibility.  Here are the standings:

1. #1 Kansas State (10-0, 7-0)
2. #12 Oklahoma (7-2, 5-1)
3. #15 Texas (8-2, 5-2)
4. #24 Oklahoma State (6-3, 4-2)
5. #23 Texas Tech (7-3, 4-3)
6. Texas Christian (6-4, 3-4)
7. West Virginia (5-4, 2-4)
8. Iowa State (5-5, 2-5)
9. Baylor (4-5, 1-5)
10. Kansas (1-9, 0-7)

It's time to start thinking about the end of the season, so from here on out, instead of subjective power rankings, end of season standings with bowl berths are predicted based on the remaining matchups (note that where available, true bowl names are substituted for stupid sponsor names):

1. #1 Kansas State (12-0, 9-0) - BCS National Championship
2. #12 Oklahoma (10-2, 8-1) - Fiesta Bowl
3. #15 Texas (9-3, 6-3) - Cotton Bowl
4. #24 Oklahoma State (8-4, 6-3) - Alamo Bowl
5. #23 Texas Tech (8-4, 5-4) - Copper Bowl
6. Iowa State (7-5, 4-5) - Holiday Bowl
7. Texas Christian (6-6, 3-6) - Texas Bowl
8. West Virginia (6-6, 3-6) - Pinstripe Bowl
9. Baylor (4-8, 1-9)
10. Kansas (1-11, 0-10)

On to this weekend.  We have four upcoming matchups in the Big 12; Texas and TCU are on bye.

Predictions:

Kansas State 45, Baylor 27

Iowa State 28, Kansas 22

Oklahoma 47, West Virginia 28

Oklahoma State 34, Texas Tech 28

The first thing I find fascinating about these predictions is that they all, with the exception of Kansas, look like actual honest-to-God common football scores (unlike many of the predictions in recent weeks).  Interesting.

The spreadsheet believes that the two leaders of the Big 12 will pick up easy wins this weekend.  KSU is favored by 18 points over Baylor; Oklahoma by 19 over WVU.  I see no reason to doubt these predictions, and in fact, any score differential over about 7-10 points has been a pretty sure thing thus far.

Baylor's defense is going to struggle to find an answer to Kansas State's offense.  As of this weekend, Kansas State has scored 111 points off opponent turnovers; the Wildcats' opponents have scored 7 (a touchdown by TCU with less than a minute left in the game, down 3-23).  If nobody else has been able to assist Bill Snyder's team in beating itself, Baylor's defense certainly won't.  If, in turn, the Bears don't defeat themselves and protect the ball, this game could be closer than the spreadsheet indicates, although I still don't see a way for them to win.  If Baylor doesn't hold on to the football (and I mean no more than zero turnovers, basically), look for the differential to be much uglier.  In any case, a KSU loss this weekend would represent the upset of the year, possibly even a bigger upset than last year's OSU-ISU game.

The longer WVU's free fall goes on, the less I believe they are likely to come out for any one game with pride, play with fire in their belly, and grab the upset.  The WVU defense continues to struggle in epic fashion.  Oklahoma is probably a more physically talented team than any the Mountaineers have faced to this point; but OU is prone to mental errors and making mistakes.  Can WVU somehow overcome the talent differential by capitalizing on Sooner mistakes?  Honestly I doubt it.  I don't see how WVU pulls off this upset; if their defense is fortunate enough to create some turnovers, the OU defense is talented enough to get their own turnovers in return.  At least WVU still has Kansas left on their schedule.

Iowa State is favored only by 6 points over Kansas.  This is going to be an interesting matchup.  On the one hand, the Cyclones were blasted by UT last weekend in a matchup that, on paper, certainly was nowhere near that one-sided.  Does this damage their confidence, or does it make them mad?  On the other hand, Kansas managed to take the Red Raiders to overtime last weekend - do the Jayhawks come into the game with more confidence and the feeling that their best shot for a conference win is right here and now?  If they do, and ISU is still reeling from the body blows landed by the Longhorns last week in Austin, this one could be an upset.  But I'm going with the spreadsheet: ISU becomes the 7th Big 12 bowl eligible team this weekend.

Finally, Oklahoma State takes on Texas Tech.  With a win, the Cowboys go a long way towards cementing their standing as the 3rd place team in the league.  A Tech win, conversely, will send the Red Raiders up in the standings with a chance to displace UT in 3rd if the Longhorns lose again (and remember, Texas still has Kansas State on the schedule).  A couple of weeks ago, I picked this game to decide the 3rd place team in the power rankings, and that still could be the case.  This will be another good game to watch: if we're going to have an upset this weekend, I think it will come at the hands of the Red Raiders.

Big 12 Week 11 Recap

Not a lot of football watching for me this weekend due to family commitments.  During the day I was aware that Kansas was giving Tech a run for their money, watched OU pull away from Baylor in the 4th quarter, noticed OSU beating up on WVU, and found out much later the score of the KSU-TCU game.  So, I won't break down the games as usual since I have nothing really to offer by way of analysis.

Prediction: Oklahoma 46, Baylor 26
Reality: Oklahoma 42, Baylor 34

Prediction: Texas 33, Iowa State 32
Reality: Texas 33, Iowa State 7

Prediction: Texas Tech 33, Kansas 22
Reality: Texas Tech 41, Kansas 34

Prediction: Kansas State 40, Texas Christian 26
Reality: Kansas State 23, Texas Christian 10

Prediction: Oklahoma State 39, West Virginia 29
Reality: Oklahoma State 55, West Virginian 34

A great week for the spreadsheet: 5-0, resulting in a 12-2 record overall since the beginning of the project.

Baylor made a slightly better showing than anticipated, though a couple of offensive miscues including a drop by Tevin Reese in the end zone prevented the Bears from giving the Sooners a serious scare.  Texas' defense shut down Iowa State; the Cyclones' window of opportunity for making a statement this season may be closing quicker than I had thought two weeks ago.  Texas Tech...well, there's really little excuse for a ranked team letting this Jayhawk team take it to overtime.  But the Red Raiders did pull out the win in two overtimes.  Browsing the box score, the KSU-TCU game doesn't look as close as the raw score would indicate.  TCU's 10 points came late in the 4th quarter, the touchdown with KSU leading 23-3 with less than a minute remaining in the game.  Finally, WVU's slide continued against Oklahoma State.

Around the country, Alabama managed to fall flat on its face before that other school, an occurrence all the more infuriating because I could not satisfactorily vent my spleen in the presence of my in-laws.  Fortunately my lovely Longhorn wife and I both engaged in a few moments of intemperate screaming during our drive home regarding the matter, so I'm feeling better, all the more when I consider how much the occurrence would seem to be to the benefit of our own most excellent conference.  Oregon took care of business, as did ND.  My rankings, had I a vote, would have those three teams in that order; #1 KSU, #2 Oregon, #3 ND.  Frankly I am not sure ND has a chance to pull itself in my top 2 without a stumble from one of the other teams.

Again, folks, sorry for this week being a bit of an aberration.  I believe I should be able to watch more games next weekend; and the week after that I will definitely have time during the Thanksgiving break to put together an in-depth post including chart analysis.

Big 12 Power Rankings and Predictions, Week 11

Sorry for the delay in getting this post out there, folks.  This week has been a bit busy.  Again this week, not a ton has changed regarding the charts, so I won't inflict them on you for now.  I anticipate picking back up with the charts next week; in fact, spacing out the chart posts a bit more may become a recurrent theme on here unless something significant has changed.

First up, the conference standings:

1. #2 Kansas State (9-0, 6-0)
2. #12 Oklahoma (6-2, 4-1)
3. #17 Texas (7-2, 4-2)
4. Oklahoma State (5-3, 3-2)
5. #22 Texas Tech (6-3, 3-3)
6. Texas Christian (6-3, 3-3)
7. West Virginia (5-3, 2-3)
8. Iowa State (5-4, 2-4)
9. Baylor (4-4, 1-4)
10. Kansas (1-8, 0-6)

Power rankings for this week:

1. #2 Kansas State
2. #12 Oklahoma
3. Oklahoma State
4. Texas Christian
5. #22 Texas Tech
6. #17 Texas
7. Iowa State
8. West Virginia
9. Baylor
10. Kansas

Kansas State continues to lead the pack; no surprise there.  Oklahoma continues in second place, but KSU's lead is starting to look insurmountable.  Cowboys, I'm as good as my word.  The polls may have dropped you after a loss to the Wildcats; I won't.  (But you did get lucky with a Texas Tech loss.)  TCU got a quality win in Morgantown, so I reward them with the #4 spot.  Frankly, though, I don't think they'll keep it - I expect they'll be leapfrogged by the end of the season by at least one of the next two teams.  Tech and Texas are neck and neck for that next slot; up to this point in the season, I think Texas Tech has proven to be a more well-rounded team than Texas, so they're on top of the Longhorns for one more week.  I still think UT is going to run into some big problems towards the end of their season, but I'll be happy to move them up if they can prove me wrong.  Iowa State is bumped down a bit by UT's rise and their loss to OU, but not too far; I still think ISU has a very good shot at 8 wins this year.  West Virginia's slide continues.  Baylor solidified its grip on the #9 slot of the Big 12 last week beating the Jayhawks soundly in Waco.

All that said, let's take a look at this week's matchups.  Again, we have a 5-game slate for the weekend.

Predictions:

Oklahoma 46, Baylor 26

Texas 33, Iowa State 32

Texas Tech 33, Kansas 22

Kansas State 40, Texas Christian 26

Oklahoma State 39, West Virginia 29

Last week the spreadsheet predicted an 18 point victory for OU over ISU, and the Sooners won by 15.  This week the spreadsheet picks OU by 20 over BU in the presumptive blowout of the week.  I tend to believe it, and here's why.  This game is going to come down to which team gets pressure on the opposing quarterback.  Both Jones and Florence have been rattled by pressure this year and have committed crucial turnovers as a result.  Last week, in fact, ISU stayed in the game in the first half by pressuring Jones and getting two interceptions on back-to-back OU possessions; their offense, however, couldn't get touchdowns after those turnovers and allowed OU to pull away.  Against TCU, Florence pressed and tried to force several passes that simply weren't there.  The crucial point, and why I believe the prediction: Baylor hasn't been able to successfully bring pressure all year against an average offensive line.  If a team is going to put pressure on the opposing QB in this matchup, it will be the Sooners, and they will win going away.

Texas-Iowa State looks to be the most even matchup of Week 11.  The spreadsheet gives the nod to UT by a point.  Reason to believe the spreadsheet: if you don't think last week was a fluke, the Longhorns are starting to pull things together as a team.  Reason not to believe the spreadsheet: as has been the case all year, UT's, WVU's, and Baylor's numbers continue to track together, and we saw what happened to Baylor against ISU.  This is a game to keep an eye on.

Interestingly, the spreadsheet appears to believe that the Jayhawks should reach the elusive 20-point mark against Tech.  I'm having a hard time believing that.  The spreadsheet is generous here.  An angry Red Raider squad smarting from last week's loss wins easily.

KSU-TCU and OSU-WVU look to be handy wins for the Wildcats and Cowboys, respectively.  In the former, the thing to watch is going to be Collin Klein's play.  Bill Snyder has been keeping pretty mum on Klein's injury in last week's victory in Stillwater; I personally believe that Klein will suit up and continue his almost machine-like perfection on the field.  Even if he doesn't, Sam looked solid as his backup.  In the latter, just keep an eye on the Mountaineers.  That third loss in a row last week in OT against TCU is the kind of thing that can crush the spirit of a former top 5, possible BCS championship contender team.  Will they rebound?  Will they continue to sink?  It certainly won't be all that easy to rebound against an OSU team that hamstrung TCU through three quarters.

Bonus Round: I'm struggling this week to come up with an idea that won't kill anyone.  I was going to suggest making a drinking game out of the number of times the phrase "Johnny Football" is said by the talking heads of college football leading up to the Alabama game on Saturday.  But I don't want to lose any readers to alcohol poisoning.

Big 12 Week 10 Recap

Alright, time to see how this week's five Big 12 games ended up.  This weekend I watched the first three quarters of Oklahoma-Iowa State game early, tuned in to Baylor-Kansas in the mid-afternoon, saw a bit of the Texas-Texas Tech game during a rain delay of the BU-KU match, and switched between Kansas State-Oklahoma State, Oregon-USC, and Alabama-LSU late.

The spreadsheet's record this week was 4-1, giving it an overall record of 7-2 over two weeks.  Again, the miss came on the closest matchup of the week.

Prediction: Baylor 35, Kansas 30
Reality: Baylor 41, Kansas 14

Game Notes: Baylor jumped out to a 14-0 lead early behind two stops by the defense.  A 59 yard touchdown rush by Kansas put them back in the game, but Baylor drove back down the field for a field goal and then stopped a Jayhawk drive that terminated with a failed fake field goal rush at the Baylor 14 yard line early in the 2nd quarter.  Subsequent offensive drives for both teams stalled until Kansas' Cummings limped ahead of the Baylor defense into the end zone to make the game 17-14.  Baylor managed another field goal to increase their lead to 6, and the teams went into the half with Baylor leading 20-14.

Lightning delayed the game after the half for about 30 minutes, so I swung over to the Texas-Texas Tech game for awhile.  By the time the teams resumed play, a steady drizzle had begun, a worrisome development for Baylor considering the styles of the two offenses.  The Bears came up with a big stop on the first Jayhawk drive of the second half, with Kansas turning the ball over on downs near the Baylor 45.  Baylor promptly punched the ball into the endzone with their own version of OU's Belldozer, run by Bryce Petty (which shall be known henceforth as the Petty Driver - get on board with it, Musburger) to make the score 27-14.  A Joe Williams interception offered the Bears the chance to increase their lead, but the ensuing drive stalled and then the Bears lost a great opportunity to pin the Jayhawks deep, allowing a touchback on the punt.  But the Bears picked off Cummings again on the next drive, this time the interception coming from Ahmad Dixon.  And this time the Bears did pound in another score, this time a rushing touchdown for Nick Florence.  That drive seemed to break the Jayhawk spirit, and the Bears went on to win by 27.  Kansas is still looking for that elusive 20 point offensive performance in a conference game.  Baylor's offense, meanwhile, is in good company, joining Kansas State and Oklahoma as the Big 12 programs to which the Jayhawk defense has surrendered 40+ points.

Prediction: Oklahoma 38, Iowa State 20
Reality: Oklahoma 35, Iowa State 20

Game Notes: The game was scoreless through the 1st quarter, a function of ISU's defense playing well (at one point stuffing Blake Bell on 4th-and-1 on the ISU 6) and Iowa State's offense sputtering despite Oklahoma's defense failing to put them away, allowing new sets of downs with facemask, hands to the face, and pass interference penalties.  Oklahoma finally broke through for a touchdown, but ISU's punter and defense continued to keep the Cyclones in the game, with an interception just before the 5 minute mark of the 2nd quarter giving ISU the ball inside the OU 20.  The ISU receivers continued this week to have trouble holding onto the ball, and the Cyclones were able to come up only with a field goal.  On the very next OU drive ISU continued to get pressure on Landry Jones and came up with another interception, this time on a tipped pass, but again was only able to come up with 3 points on a 51 yard field goal.  With barely a minute left in the half, OU drove 75 yards for another touchdown to go to the half leading 14-6.  In the second half, OU pulled away to win by 15.  I'm very pleased with the spreadsheet's performance on this matchup.


Prediction: Kansas State 33, Oklahoma State 24
Reality: Kansas State 44, Oklahoma State 30

Game Notes: Yet again, Kansas State started deceptively slow, grinding at the opponent, and then inevitably capitalizing off more turnovers.  Leading 10-7 in the 2nd quarter, the Wildcats forced a fumble and pounded home a touchdown on a well-executed read option.  The Cowboy quarterback Wes Lunt subsequently threw three interceptions, one returned for a touchdown, by the 13 minute mark of the 3rd quarter.  With the Wildcats up by 21 late in the 3rd, Collin Klein came out of the game with an apparent injury.  Even without Optimus Klein, the Wildcats suffocated the Cowboys, winning their ninth game of the year.

Prediction: Texas Christian 42, West Virginia 34
Reality: Texas Christian 39, West Virginia 38

Game Notes: I didn't see any of this game live, but did follow it into overtime on the ESPN game tracker.  Both teams flubbed field goals on their first drives of OT.  WVU subsequently scored a touchdown, and TCU promptly did the same...and went for two, winning the game.  Shades of the Baylor-Texas A&M 2004 game, and a quality pick for the spreadsheet.

Prediction: Texas Tech 39, Texas 36
Reality: Texas 31, Texas Tech 22.

Game Notes: In a fun little bit of nose-tweaking, Texas Tech decided to emphasize their Texas credentials against UT with uniforms displaying red, white, and blue stars and a double T inside an outline of the state on the right side of the helmet.  But they couldn't continue the tweaking on the field, as Good Texas showed up today instead of Bad Texas.  The Longhorns led at the break, but the UT offense sputtered in the 3rd quarter.  Early in the 2nd half Doege brought the Red Raiders downfield for a field goal scoring drive to make the score 24-16 Texas.  Tech stopped UT's subsequent drive and drove back up the field again, including a gutsy reverse call on 4th-and-1 to keep the drive alive, to tack on six more points.  The Red Raiders' ensuing two-point conversion attempt failed and the Longhorns nursed a slim 24-22 lead into the 4th quarter.  I headed back over to the Baylor game with UT driving into the Red Raider red zone with about 10 minutes left in the 4th quarter.  The Longhorns would ultimately hold on to win against the Red Raiders, adding a touchdown and preventing any further scoring by Texas Tech.

In other news around the country, Pitt took Notre Dame to overtime in South Bend but missed a game-winning field goal and allowed the Irish to slip past for a win.  Distinct lack of style points for ND; how much will it hurt the Irish down the stretch?

In LA, Oregon raced out to an early lead which they never relinquished, pounding USC 62-51 in an offensive explosion.  Style points here?  Believe it.  Not only do the Ducks rack up a win, but they knock down ND's strength of schedule with the win.

And in Baton Rouge, LSU took an early field goal lead, which Bama erased.  With the Tide leading 14-3 late in the 3rd quarter, LSU finally put together a drive deep into Bama territory to score a touchdown and pull within 4.  On the subsequent kickoff, the Mad Hatter pulled out an onside kick which was touched by the LSU kicker before going 10 yards, giving Bama the ball on the LSU 44.  But Bama fumbled the ball back to LSU, and the Tigers went ahead 17-14.  With two minutes left in the game, Bama drove back down the field, taking advantage of soft LSU coverage.  And then AJ McCarron read a Tiger blitz perfectly, and dropped off a beautiful little screen pass to TJ Yeldon to go back up by 4 with 51 seconds remaining.  Gutsy win by Bama.

If I had a ballot, this week Oregon would definitely have climbed back on top of ND.  Bama remains first; KSU remains second.