Big 12 Updates

We're through 4 weeks of football, most of the way through the Big 12's nonconference slate (and it has been a bumpy ride indeed), and have seen our first couple of Big 12 conference matchups.  Time to look at the conference standings, recap what we've seen so far, and reassess some of our preseason predictions.

1. #24 Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0)
2. #14 Oklahoma (3-0, 1-0)
3. Texas (2-2, 1-0)
4. #19 Baylor (3-0)
5. #11 Oklahoma State (3-0)
6. Kansas (2-1)
7. Iowa State (0-2)
8. Kansas State (2-2, 0-1)
9. West Virginia (2-2, 0-1)
10. Texas Christian (1-2, 0-1)

First up - Texas Tech.  I owe the Red Raiders a bit of an apology, but I'll be upfront: it's going to be a backhanded apology.  I think that the Red Raiders are only going to be marginally better than I expected (especially with a muddy QB situation).  Texas Tech is bouncing way up in the power rankings, however, because a bunch of teams I originally placed ahead of them are proving to be significantly worse than I expected.  The Red Raiders have already beaten one of those teams (TCU) and could easily run the table (or at least go 2-1) against Texas, West Virginia, and Kansas State.  I'm revising my previous season record prediction upwards to 8 wins or so.

West Virginia and Kansas State are in free-fall regarding power rankings at the moment. Kansas State was taken down by a floundering Texas for their second loss of the season (the first, of course, coming at the hands of FCS North Dakota State).  West Virginia's offense, so potent in the last couple of years, just got shut out by Maryland.

Texas and TCU are also sliding.  UT managed to arrest their slide a wee bit with a win over the Wildcats at home.  The week before, though, the Mormons made Mack Brown utter some naughty words on television and fire his defensive coordinator.  TCU has lost Pachall, whose injured arm was elbowed by one of his teammates in the second most memorable TV clip of the TCU-TTU game (the most memorable was a terrified wild canine (fox? coyote?) seen running around behind the visitor's bench - welcome to west Texas).

In the cellar, a glimmer of light: Kansas just scored its first victory over an FBS school (Louisiana Tech) in 23 games by kicking a field goal as time expired.  Their partners in misery, Iowa State, suffered the Big 12's other loss to an FCS school on the opening weekend of the season.

And at the top, there really isn't much to differentiate Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Baylor thus far.  OU's defense has looked very solid and OSU's victories include a very strong performance against SEC opponent Mississippi State and dominating performances against weaker competition.  Meanwhile Baylor hit the season balls-to-the-wall and has had to throttle back minutes into the 3rd quarter of each of its games against severely overmatched opponents to avoid scoring more than 70 points (the Bears' three victories have seen Baylor tally points totals of 69, 70, and 70, respectively).  Baylor's defensive backfield has looked very suspect at times, but with a more aggressive pass rush forcing errors the Bears' D has outscored its opponents 28-23.  Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have endured some lack of clarity at quarterback, but OU's defense has given Bob Stoops plenty of time to ponder his choice of QB, and using two quarterbacks hasn't severely impacted Mike Gundy's teams lately.  At this early stage of the season, it appears that the road to the conference championship will run through Norman, Stillwater, or Waco.

Without further ado, the current power rankings:

1. #11 Oklahoma State
2. #19 Baylor
3. #14 Oklahoma
4. #24 Texas Tech
5. Texas Christian
6. Texas
7. Kansas State
8. West Virginia
9. Kansas
10. Iowa State

At the top, there's no real separation between the schools.  I give the Cowboys the nod because they get both Baylor and Oklahoma at home this year.  Baylor takes a step over the Sooners simply because the Bears get Oklahoma at home.  That's it - no other reasons at this point.  Texas Tech has vaulted into 4th place over a bunch of teams who are much worse than I had expected.  Texas Christian comes in 5th due to the shakiness of Boykin's play at quarterback.  Texas has slid to 6th and would have gone further down except that the next couple of teams below them are also on a downward trajectory.  Kansas State and West Virginia are essentially in a tie at #7, each with one point in their favor: Kansas State has Bill Snyder; West Virginia hasn't lost to an FCS team.  Kansas jumps over Iowa State with wins over FCS and FBS opponents.

Big 12 Power Rankings and Predictions, Week 11

Sorry for the delay in getting this post out there, folks.  This week has been a bit busy.  Again this week, not a ton has changed regarding the charts, so I won't inflict them on you for now.  I anticipate picking back up with the charts next week; in fact, spacing out the chart posts a bit more may become a recurrent theme on here unless something significant has changed.

First up, the conference standings:

1. #2 Kansas State (9-0, 6-0)
2. #12 Oklahoma (6-2, 4-1)
3. #17 Texas (7-2, 4-2)
4. Oklahoma State (5-3, 3-2)
5. #22 Texas Tech (6-3, 3-3)
6. Texas Christian (6-3, 3-3)
7. West Virginia (5-3, 2-3)
8. Iowa State (5-4, 2-4)
9. Baylor (4-4, 1-4)
10. Kansas (1-8, 0-6)

Power rankings for this week:

1. #2 Kansas State
2. #12 Oklahoma
3. Oklahoma State
4. Texas Christian
5. #22 Texas Tech
6. #17 Texas
7. Iowa State
8. West Virginia
9. Baylor
10. Kansas

Kansas State continues to lead the pack; no surprise there.  Oklahoma continues in second place, but KSU's lead is starting to look insurmountable.  Cowboys, I'm as good as my word.  The polls may have dropped you after a loss to the Wildcats; I won't.  (But you did get lucky with a Texas Tech loss.)  TCU got a quality win in Morgantown, so I reward them with the #4 spot.  Frankly, though, I don't think they'll keep it - I expect they'll be leapfrogged by the end of the season by at least one of the next two teams.  Tech and Texas are neck and neck for that next slot; up to this point in the season, I think Texas Tech has proven to be a more well-rounded team than Texas, so they're on top of the Longhorns for one more week.  I still think UT is going to run into some big problems towards the end of their season, but I'll be happy to move them up if they can prove me wrong.  Iowa State is bumped down a bit by UT's rise and their loss to OU, but not too far; I still think ISU has a very good shot at 8 wins this year.  West Virginia's slide continues.  Baylor solidified its grip on the #9 slot of the Big 12 last week beating the Jayhawks soundly in Waco.

All that said, let's take a look at this week's matchups.  Again, we have a 5-game slate for the weekend.

Predictions:

Oklahoma 46, Baylor 26

Texas 33, Iowa State 32

Texas Tech 33, Kansas 22

Kansas State 40, Texas Christian 26

Oklahoma State 39, West Virginia 29

Last week the spreadsheet predicted an 18 point victory for OU over ISU, and the Sooners won by 15.  This week the spreadsheet picks OU by 20 over BU in the presumptive blowout of the week.  I tend to believe it, and here's why.  This game is going to come down to which team gets pressure on the opposing quarterback.  Both Jones and Florence have been rattled by pressure this year and have committed crucial turnovers as a result.  Last week, in fact, ISU stayed in the game in the first half by pressuring Jones and getting two interceptions on back-to-back OU possessions; their offense, however, couldn't get touchdowns after those turnovers and allowed OU to pull away.  Against TCU, Florence pressed and tried to force several passes that simply weren't there.  The crucial point, and why I believe the prediction: Baylor hasn't been able to successfully bring pressure all year against an average offensive line.  If a team is going to put pressure on the opposing QB in this matchup, it will be the Sooners, and they will win going away.

Texas-Iowa State looks to be the most even matchup of Week 11.  The spreadsheet gives the nod to UT by a point.  Reason to believe the spreadsheet: if you don't think last week was a fluke, the Longhorns are starting to pull things together as a team.  Reason not to believe the spreadsheet: as has been the case all year, UT's, WVU's, and Baylor's numbers continue to track together, and we saw what happened to Baylor against ISU.  This is a game to keep an eye on.

Interestingly, the spreadsheet appears to believe that the Jayhawks should reach the elusive 20-point mark against Tech.  I'm having a hard time believing that.  The spreadsheet is generous here.  An angry Red Raider squad smarting from last week's loss wins easily.

KSU-TCU and OSU-WVU look to be handy wins for the Wildcats and Cowboys, respectively.  In the former, the thing to watch is going to be Collin Klein's play.  Bill Snyder has been keeping pretty mum on Klein's injury in last week's victory in Stillwater; I personally believe that Klein will suit up and continue his almost machine-like perfection on the field.  Even if he doesn't, Sam looked solid as his backup.  In the latter, just keep an eye on the Mountaineers.  That third loss in a row last week in OT against TCU is the kind of thing that can crush the spirit of a former top 5, possible BCS championship contender team.  Will they rebound?  Will they continue to sink?  It certainly won't be all that easy to rebound against an OSU team that hamstrung TCU through three quarters.

Bonus Round: I'm struggling this week to come up with an idea that won't kill anyone.  I was going to suggest making a drinking game out of the number of times the phrase "Johnny Football" is said by the talking heads of college football leading up to the Alabama game on Saturday.  But I don't want to lose any readers to alcohol poisoning.