Big 12 Updates

We're through 4 weeks of football, most of the way through the Big 12's nonconference slate (and it has been a bumpy ride indeed), and have seen our first couple of Big 12 conference matchups.  Time to look at the conference standings, recap what we've seen so far, and reassess some of our preseason predictions.

1. #24 Texas Tech (4-0, 1-0)
2. #14 Oklahoma (3-0, 1-0)
3. Texas (2-2, 1-0)
4. #19 Baylor (3-0)
5. #11 Oklahoma State (3-0)
6. Kansas (2-1)
7. Iowa State (0-2)
8. Kansas State (2-2, 0-1)
9. West Virginia (2-2, 0-1)
10. Texas Christian (1-2, 0-1)

First up - Texas Tech.  I owe the Red Raiders a bit of an apology, but I'll be upfront: it's going to be a backhanded apology.  I think that the Red Raiders are only going to be marginally better than I expected (especially with a muddy QB situation).  Texas Tech is bouncing way up in the power rankings, however, because a bunch of teams I originally placed ahead of them are proving to be significantly worse than I expected.  The Red Raiders have already beaten one of those teams (TCU) and could easily run the table (or at least go 2-1) against Texas, West Virginia, and Kansas State.  I'm revising my previous season record prediction upwards to 8 wins or so.

West Virginia and Kansas State are in free-fall regarding power rankings at the moment. Kansas State was taken down by a floundering Texas for their second loss of the season (the first, of course, coming at the hands of FCS North Dakota State).  West Virginia's offense, so potent in the last couple of years, just got shut out by Maryland.

Texas and TCU are also sliding.  UT managed to arrest their slide a wee bit with a win over the Wildcats at home.  The week before, though, the Mormons made Mack Brown utter some naughty words on television and fire his defensive coordinator.  TCU has lost Pachall, whose injured arm was elbowed by one of his teammates in the second most memorable TV clip of the TCU-TTU game (the most memorable was a terrified wild canine (fox? coyote?) seen running around behind the visitor's bench - welcome to west Texas).

In the cellar, a glimmer of light: Kansas just scored its first victory over an FBS school (Louisiana Tech) in 23 games by kicking a field goal as time expired.  Their partners in misery, Iowa State, suffered the Big 12's other loss to an FCS school on the opening weekend of the season.

And at the top, there really isn't much to differentiate Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Baylor thus far.  OU's defense has looked very solid and OSU's victories include a very strong performance against SEC opponent Mississippi State and dominating performances against weaker competition.  Meanwhile Baylor hit the season balls-to-the-wall and has had to throttle back minutes into the 3rd quarter of each of its games against severely overmatched opponents to avoid scoring more than 70 points (the Bears' three victories have seen Baylor tally points totals of 69, 70, and 70, respectively).  Baylor's defensive backfield has looked very suspect at times, but with a more aggressive pass rush forcing errors the Bears' D has outscored its opponents 28-23.  Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have endured some lack of clarity at quarterback, but OU's defense has given Bob Stoops plenty of time to ponder his choice of QB, and using two quarterbacks hasn't severely impacted Mike Gundy's teams lately.  At this early stage of the season, it appears that the road to the conference championship will run through Norman, Stillwater, or Waco.

Without further ado, the current power rankings:

1. #11 Oklahoma State
2. #19 Baylor
3. #14 Oklahoma
4. #24 Texas Tech
5. Texas Christian
6. Texas
7. Kansas State
8. West Virginia
9. Kansas
10. Iowa State

At the top, there's no real separation between the schools.  I give the Cowboys the nod because they get both Baylor and Oklahoma at home this year.  Baylor takes a step over the Sooners simply because the Bears get Oklahoma at home.  That's it - no other reasons at this point.  Texas Tech has vaulted into 4th place over a bunch of teams who are much worse than I had expected.  Texas Christian comes in 5th due to the shakiness of Boykin's play at quarterback.  Texas has slid to 6th and would have gone further down except that the next couple of teams below them are also on a downward trajectory.  Kansas State and West Virginia are essentially in a tie at #7, each with one point in their favor: Kansas State has Bill Snyder; West Virginia hasn't lost to an FCS team.  Kansas jumps over Iowa State with wins over FCS and FBS opponents.

2013 Big 12 Season Predictions

It's the first day of summer, Big 12 fans, which means the football season is just around the corner...

Time to shake off the rust around here and start getting into our game faces.  So to get things kicked off, I present the Big 12 Spreadsheet 2013 Season Predictions.

FINAL SEASON STANDINGS PREDICTION:

1. Oklahoma State (11-1, 8-1)
2. Oklahoma (11-1, 8-1)
3. Texas Christian (9-3, 7-2)
4. Baylor (9-3, 6-3)
5. Texas (8-4, 5-4)
6. Kansas State (8-4, 5-4)
7. West Virginia (6-6, 3-6)
8. Texas Tech (5-7, 2-7)
9. Iowa State (3-9, 1-8)
10. Kansas (2-10, 0-9)

Read on to find out how I arrived at these conclusions.  If I had to guess, I'd say that Iowa State and Texas Tech are probably a bit low and Baylor and TCU a bit high.  I particularly feel that I'm struggling to correctly predict TCU given the uncertainty regarding their quarterback situation - we've never seen Pachall vs. the better Big 12 defenses.  I'd expect that the teams between TCU and Texas Tech may beat each other up a bit more than I've predicted, muddying the waters in the same fashion as last season.  I wouldn't be a bit surprised if the wizard in Manhattan made me look a fool.  As always, I welcome additional input from other viewpoints, particularly from other fanbases.

BAYLOR

The Bears' season will hinge on maintaining quarterback play and improving defensive play.  If they can do those things, the Bears are a darkhorse contender in the Big 12.  If not, they should at least finish with bowl eligibility, but well out of contention in the middle of the herd.

1. Wofford - W. They'll actually hang early, but BU ends up winning this one going away in the second half. 1-0.
2. Buffalo - W. Is it strange that I think Wofford might actually be a tougher opponent for the Bears than Buffalo? 2-0.
3. ULM - W. Baylor gets 'em at home and I don't think they have surprises this year to match last year. 3-0.
4. WVU - W. The Mountaineer offense will crack under the strain Baylor’s offense will put on them, and the Bears’ D will feast on turnovers. 4-0.
5. @KSU - tossup. Baylor ought to beat the Wildcats this year, but Snyder doesn't give anything away and the Bears struggle mightily on the road.  This could go either way. 5-0 or 4-1.
6. ISU - W. By contrast to the away struggles, check it: by my rough count the Bears are 16-3 at home in the last 3 years. 6-0 or 5-1.
7. @KU - W. Baylor fans should have some bad feelings about this based on their last trip up to Lawrence, but I still think they take this one, especially if KU surprises someone before this road trip. 7-0 or 6-1.
8. OU - L. It isn’t quite early enough in the season for the Bears to be that team that pulls OU’s pants down. On the other hand, they weren't that team in 2011 but beat the Sooners anyway. I'm close to a tossup on this one, but I already have a couple more coming so I feel that I need to actually come down on one side of the fence for this one. 7-1 or 6-2.
9. Texas Tech - W. I think Tech struggles a bit this year. That said, Baylor almost gave it away to the Red Raiders last year. 8-1 or 7-2.
10. @OSU - L. Going into Stillwater is dicey. See KSU re: struggles away. 8-2 or 7-3.
11. @TCU - tossup. Again, see KSU. Furthermore, by this time in the season there won't be any question marks about the TCU QB situation, however it shakes down. 9-2, 8-3, or 7-4.
12. UT - tossup. This is going to be an emotional game anyway as the last contest ever played in the 63 year history of Floyd Casey Stadium, let alone an in-state rivalry game. 10-2, 9-3, 8-4, or 7-5.

FINAL PREDICTION: Baylor guts out a tough game in Manhattan and ends up 7-0 through the first half of the season.  That second half is a true grind, though, and the Bears drop three of their last 5, to OU, OSU, and TCU.  A win against UT sends Floyd Casey Stadium out with a bang and gives the Bears a 9-3 regular season record.

IOWA STATE

I was a bit high on the Cyclones last year.  I thought they had a legitimate shot at 8 wins last year, and was disappointed by their stumbles against WVU and in their bowl game.  I also thought they had the talent to hang much closer to Texas.  Not going to make that mistake again - the Cyclones are going to have to impress me this year.

1. Northern Iowa – W.  ISU should easily take care of business at home to start the season out right. 1-0.
2. Iowa – W.  The Cyclones make it 3 in a row against their in-state rivals.  2-0.
3. @Tulsa – L.  A tight game goes Tulsa’s way.  2-1.
4. Texas – L.  UT’s offense might not be the best, but at least it has experience.  ISU can’t keep up with Ash and the Longhorn defense is smothering. 2-2.
5. @Texas Tech – tossup. A road trip to Lubbock isn’t easy, as WVU will attest from last year.  But Tech will be reloading with a new HC, so I haven’t got as good a bead on this game as I’d like. 3-2 or 2-3.
6. @Baylor – L.  Baylor stumbled badly against ISU in Ames last year, but dominated in 2011 at home.  ISU will struggle away this year as well. 3-3 or 2-4
7. OSU – L. The Cowboys will be near the top of the Big 12, but this year I don’t see them letting the Cyclones sneak up on them. 3-4 or 2-5
8. @KSU – tossup.  ISU hasn’t beaten the Wildcats since 2007.  They also haven’t lost to KSU by more than 8 points since that time, either.  If the Cyclones are going to pull off an upset this year, it will be this game or at WVU. 4-4, 3-5, or 2-6.
9. TCU – L.  The Cyclones beat the Horned Frogs last year in Fort Worth, but that was the week that Pachall was suspended.  This year, I don’t think ISU can count on extracurricular activities impacting this game.  4-5, 3-6, or 2-7.
10. @OU – L.  Not much to say here.  Sooners will get the job done at home.  4-6, 3-7, or 2-8.
11. KU – W.  I could see Kansas surprising someone this year.  I just think that if they do, it will happen at home.  5-6, 4-7, 3-8.
12. @WVU – tossup.  This game, for me, is basically going to come down to how much ISU is playing for on the last week of the season.  If the tossups thus far have gone their way and they are sitting at 5 wins, I could see them coming out with emotion and surprising the Mountaineers.  If they’re at 4 wins or less, I think malaise will have set in.  6-6, 5-7, 4-8, or 3-9.

FINAL PREDICTION: the early season loss to Tulsa sparks an 8 game losing streak broken only by a victory against KU in Ames.  WVU then punctuates the disappointing season by dropping the Cyclones to 3-9 on the year.

KANSAS

Ah, Kansas, Kansas.  Not a whole lot to say below.  Odds and close games in the last couple of years suggest that the Jayhawks will get a Big 12 win this year - I just don’t see how.  Their chances are probably best early in the season; if they start showing signs of life, people will start taking them more seriously, and when that happens they will continue to be overwhelmed by the rest of the league.

1. South Dakota – W. Bad FBS team > bad FCS team. 1-0.
2. @Rice – W.  This should probably be a tossup, but I'll give the Jayhawks the benefit of the doubt. 2-0.
3. Louisiana Tech – L. The La Tech offense will roll against KU. 2-1.
4. Texas Tech – L. 2-2.
5. @TCU – L. 2-3.
6. OU – L.  2-4.
7. Baylor – L.  2-5.
8. @Texas – L.  2-6.
9. @OSU – L. 2-7.
10. WVU – tossup. I know, I’m hating on WVU this year. 3-7 or 2-8.
11. @ISU – L. 3-8 or 2-9.
12. KSU – L. 3-9 or 2-10.

FINAL PREDICTION: I only threw in the tossup so it looked like I was thinking seriously about these picks.  Final record for the Jayhawks: 2-10.  There's always basketball season.

KANSAS STATE

In this segment, I make prognostications which will most likely leave me shamefaced later this season.  Even after nearly two decades of watching the Wizard of Manhattan in action, I don't think anyone can really believe what Bill Snyder has done and continues to do.  Kansas State always makes the naysayers look stupid.

1. North Dakota State – W.  KSU will take care of business in non-conference play.  1-0.
2. Louisiana-Lafayette – W.  2-0.
3. UMass – W.  3-0.
4. @Texas – L.  The Wildcats have a tendency to give UT fits for some reason, but experience at QB makes the difference in this game.  3-1.
5. @OSU – L.  OSU is getting a decent number of Big 12 contenders at home, which bodes well for them.  3-2.
6. Baylor – tossup.  Being in Manhattan should give KSU a boost, but the Wildcats struggle against up-tempo offenses as Baylor and Oregon showed last season.  4-2 or 3-3.
7. WVU – W.  5-2 or 4-3.
8. ISU – W. 6-2 or 5-3.
9. @Texas Tech – W.  7-2 or 6-3.
10. TCU – tossup. 8-2, 7-3, 6-4.
11. OU – tossup. 9-2, 8-3, 7-4, or 6-5.
12. @Kansas – W. 10-2, 9-3, 8-4, or 7-5.

FINAL PREDICTION: The Wildcats drop games against Texas, OSU, and Baylor, but surprise TCU in Forth Worth.  OU gets revenge for last year's loss in Norman, and KSU closes out the season with an absolute pummeling of an abject Jayhawk team, taking them to 8-4 on the season.

OKLAHOMA

There’s really no reason the Sooners shouldn’t dominate the Big 12, except for the fact that they haven’t lately despite there being no reason they shouldn’t...if that makes sense.  Somebody always seems able to sneak up on them, although in fairness they didn't inexplicably drop a game to a bad team last year.

1. ULM – W.  1-0.
2. WVU – W. 2-0.
3. Tulsa – W. 3-0.
4. @Notre Dame – W.  The Sooners should get some revenge in South Bend this year.  4-0.
5. TCU – tossup.  This ought to be a pretty good game.  OU rarely gives away games at home (of course, they gave away two big ones last year).  5-0 or 4-1. 
6. Texas – W. Whatever else the Longhorns do during the season, they have had no answer for Stoops and the Sooners at the Cotton Bowl the last couple of years.  I mean, it hasn’t even been close.  6-0 or 5-1.
7. @KU – W. 7-0 or 6-1.
8. Texas Tech – W. 8-0 or 7-1.
9. @Baylor – W.  As a BU fan, I actually admit to some optimism here.  However, I called it a loss for the Bears in the BU schedule prediction, and I stick to my guns here.  9-0 or 8-1.
10. ISU -  W. 10-0 or 9-1.
11. @KSU – tossup.  OU has a really difficult last two weeks of the season, away at both KSU and OSU.  Wow.  11-0, 10-1, or 9-2.
12. @OSU – tossup.  I would not at all be surprised if Bedlam were to decide the winner of the Big 12 outright.  I would be shocked if Bedlam didn’t decide at least part of the conference title. 12-0, 11-1, 10-2, or 9-3.

FINAL PREDICTION: The worst of all possible worlds happens for the Big 12 and Oklahoma this year with respect to chances for a Big 12 national champion.  The Sooners roll into Bedlam 11-0, #2 in the BCS, and OSU drops them in Bedlam.

OKLAHOMA STATE

The Cowboys should contend again for the conference title two years after breaking into the BCS for the first time.  You know they're going to use dropping all the way to the Heart of Dallas Bowl last year for motivation.

1. Mississippi State – W.  This is going to be one of two Big 12 openers against the SEC.  Looking at the Bulldog’s struggles against top 25 teams last year, I think they got a bit over-ranked last year.  Calling it for the Cowboys.  1-0.
2. @UTSA – W.  After the MSU game, I don't see the Cowboys having trouble with their other two non-conference games.  2-0.
3. Lamar – W. 3-0.
4. @WVU – W.  OSU declares it is a force to be reckoned with in Morgantown. 4-0.
5. KSU – W. 5-0.
6. TCU – tossup.  Really tough call here. 6-0 or 5-1.
7. @ISU – W. 7-0 or 6-1.
8. @Texas Tech – W. 8-0 or 7-1.
9. Kansas – W. 9-0 or 8-1.
10. @Texas – tossup. 10-0, 9-1, or 8-2.
11. Baylor – W. 11-0, 10-1, or 9-2.
12. OU – tossup. 12-0, 11-1, or 10-2, or 9-3.

FINAL PREDICTION: TCU shocks the Cowboys in Stillwater.  To their credit, they rebound to run off 5 straight victories before rolling into Bedlam still in control of their fate in the conference.  A wild game ends with an OSU victory and gives the Cowboys an 11-1 record and their second Big 12 title in 3 years.

TEXAS

The Longhorns need to make a move this year or the mood will turn really nasty in Austin.  Good news: they have about the most experience at QB as anyone in the Big 12.  Bad news: that aura of invincibility that they and OU enjoyed in the early years of the Big 12 has really shattered.

1. New Mexico State – W. 1-0.
2. @BYU – W.  A win, but this certainly won't be a foregone conclusion.  2-0.
3. Ole Miss – W.  3-0.
4. KSU – W.  The Longhorns finally break whatever spell Bill Snyder has had over them for the past couple of seasons.  4-0. 
5. @ISU – W. 5-0.
6. OU – L.  Another game at the Cotton Bowl starts with a 50-50 Orange-Crimson split and ends with a 50-50 silver-Crimson split.  5-1.
7. @TCU – L. 5-2.
8. Kansas – W. 6-2.
9. @WVU – W. 7-2.
10. OSU – L. 7-3.
11. Texas Tech – W. 8-3.
12. @Baylor – tossup. 9-3 or 8-4.

FINAL PREDICTION:  A victory against KSU in Austin has the talking heads proclaiming that Texas is back.  Well, back from 2010 perhaps, but not back to 2005, which OU proves in another pounding in the Red River Shootout (yes, I said Shootout - suck it, political correctness).  Losses to the Oklahoma schools and TCU dampen spirits a tad, and UT splits its last two games of the season with a dominant win over a reeling Texas Tech in Austin and a close loss in Waco against Baylor to finish 8-4.

TEXAS CHRISTIAN

Much is being made of TCU’s status as a contender this year...it could be.  Due to Pachall’s absence for most of last year, I’m having a difficult time getting a read on TCU this year.  I’ve wanted to call more of their matchups as tossups than any other team's.

1. LSU – L.  The Horned Frogs acquit themselves admirably, but there's just too much rust on Pachall and the LSU defense proves the difference.  0-1.
2. SE Louisiana – W. 1-1.
3. @Texas Tech – W. 2-1.
4. SMU – W. 3-1.
5. @OU – tossup. 4-1 or 3-2.
6. Kansas – W. 5-1 or 4-2.
7. @OSU – tossup. 6-1, 5-2 or 4-3.
8. Texas – W. 7-1, 6-2 or 5-3.
9. WVU – W. 8-1, 7-2 or 6-3.
10. @ISU – W. 9-1, 8-2 or 7-3.
11. @KSU – tossup.  10-1, 9-2, 8-3, or 7-4.
12. Baylor – tossup. 11-1, 10-2, 9-3, 8-4, or 7-5.

FINAL PREDICTION: TCU matches up surprisingly well against LSU but drops a defensive battle in Dallas.  Oklahoma rolls past them, but two games later TCU shocks OSU in Stillwater.  The Horned Frogs take down UT, smash WVU and ISU, but drop a heartbreaker in Manhattan.  They finish the season strong, dropping Baylor in Fort Worth to go to 9-3 on the season.

TEXAS TECH

I’m a bit down on Tech this year.  They’re probably not going to be as bad as I’m predicting.  That said, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised if Tubberville left quite a mess to be cleaned up in Lubbock – he sure skedaddled in a hurry.  They also have a brutal end to their season.

1. @SMU – W. 1-0.
2. SFA – W. 2-0.
3. TCU – L. 2-1.
4. Texas State – W. 3-1.
5. @Kansas – W. 4-1.
6. ISU – tossup.  This should probably be a win for Tech. 5-1 or 4-2.
7. @WVU – tossup.  Hard to get a bead on this one.  Sure didn’t expect Tech’s victory last year.  6-1, 5-2, or 4-3.
8. @OU – L. 6-2, 5-3, or 4-4.
9. OSU – L. 6-3, 5-4, or 4-5.
10. KSU – L. 6-4, 5-5, or 4-6.
11. Baylor – tossup. 7-4, 6-5, 5-6, or 4-7.
12. @Texas – L. 7-5, 6-6, 5-7, or 4-8.

FINAL PREDICTION: The Red Raiders hang tough in a loss in Lubbock against TCU, win handily against Kansas and squeak through ISU, but get caught looking past WVU to the Oklahoma game.  From there, Tech simply cannot catch a break to save its life.  OU pounds them; OSU withstands a furious 4th quarter Tech rally to hold on for a win; and KSU does what KSU does best, grinding out a victory in a low-scoring, hard hitting game.  Baylor and UT finish off the season with victories in Dallas and Austin, respectively, and Tech misses bowl eligibility with a 5-7 record.

WEST VIRGINIA

Another team I'm down on this season.  It's hard to believe that the Mountaineers were seen as a top 5 team less than a year ago, and the massive pummeling of Clemson feels like ancient history these days.

William & Mary – W. 1-0

@OU – L. If the Mountaineers couldn’t take care of business during a game that featured the Transfiguration of Tavon, they won’t this year in Norman.  1-1.

Georgia State – W. 2-1.

Maryland – W. 3-1.

OSU – L. 3-2.
@Baylor – L. 3-3.
Texas Tech – tossup. 4-3 or 3-4.
@KSU – L. 4-4 or 3-5.
@TCU – L. 4-5 or 3-6.

Texas – L. 4-6 or 3-7.

@Kansas – W. 5-6 or 4-7.

ISU – tossup. 6-6, 5-7, or 4-8.

FINAL PREDICTION: WVU punches Texas Tech in the gut halfway through the season, and for a moment you almost believe that this team almost believes it can beat the elite of the league.  Three straight losses to KSU, TCU, and Texas put paid to that notion.  The Mountaineers are fortunate to conclude with Kansas and ISU; they finish off Kansas easily.  During the ISU game, one has the feeling that the difference maker in the game is simply the fact that WVU is fighting for bowl eligibility against a Cyclone team that knows its season is over.  The Mountaineers finish 6-6.